기상청 통합지역모델을 이용한 계절 한국형 항공난류예측시스템(계절-KTG) 개발
Development of the Seasonal Korean Aviation Turbulence Guidance (KTG) System Using the Regional Unified Model of the Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA)
1
조회
0
다운로드
3
인용
0
참고문헌
키워드
초록
Sources of aviation turbulence vary through the seasons, especially in the East Asiaincluding Korean peninsula, associated primarily with the changes in the jet/front system andconvective activities. For this reason, a seasonal Korean aviation Turbulence Guidance (KTG)system (seasonal-KTG) is developed in the present study by using pilot reports (PIREPs) andanalysis data of the operational Unified Model (UM) of the Korea Meteorological Administration(KMA) for two years between June 2011 and May 2013. Twenty best diagnostics of aviationturbulence in each season are selected by the method of probability of detection (POD)using the PIREPs and UM data. After calculating a weighting value of each selected diagnosticsusing their area under curve (AUC), the 20 best diagnostics are combined with the weightingscores into a single ensemble-averaged index by season. Compared with the currentoperational-KTG system that is based on the diagnostics applying all seasons, the performancesof the seasonal-KTG system are better in all seasons, except in fall.
Abstract
Sources of aviation turbulence vary through the seasons, especially in the East Asiaincluding Korean peninsula, associated primarily with the changes in the jet/front system andconvective activities. For this reason, a seasonal Korean aviation Turbulence Guidance (KTG)system (seasonal-KTG) is developed in the present study by using pilot reports (PIREPs) andanalysis data of the operational Unified Model (UM) of the Korea Meteorological Administration(KMA) for two years between June 2011 and May 2013. Twenty best diagnostics of aviationturbulence in each season are selected by the method of probability of detection (POD)using the PIREPs and UM data. After calculating a weighting value of each selected diagnosticsusing their area under curve (AUC), the 20 best diagnostics are combined with the weightingscores into a single ensemble-averaged index by season. Compared with the currentoperational-KTG system that is based on the diagnostics applying all seasons, the performancesof the seasonal-KTG system are better in all seasons, except in fall.
참고문헌 (18)
- Cho, J. Y. N., "Horizontal velocity structure functions in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere 1. Observations", J. Geophys. Res., 106, pp.10223~10232 (2001)
- Dutton, J. A., "Clear air turbulence:A mystery may be unfolding", Science, 167, pp.937~944 (1970)
- Ellrod, G. P., "Clear-air turbulence", pp.393~403 (2003), Academic Press
- Fahey, T. H., "Northwest Airlines atmospheric hazards advisory and avoidance system", 5th Conf. on Aviation, Range, and Aerospace Meteorology, pp.409~413 (1993), Amer. Meteor. Soc.
- A description of the fifth generation Pen State, "NCAT mesoscale model", Grell, G. A., 1994, pp.138~, NCAR[DOI]
- Jaeger, E. B., "A Northern Hemispheric climatology of indices for clear air turbulence in the tropopause region derived from ERA40 reanalysis data", J. Geophys. Res., 112, pp.D20106~ (2007)[DOI]
- 장욱, "한국의 청천난류 예보 시스템에 대한 연구. Part I: 한국형 통합 난류 예측 알고리즘", 대기, 19(3), pp.255~268 (2009), 한국기상학회
- 김정훈, "한국의 청천난류 예보 시스템에 대한 연구 Part II: Graphical Turbulence Guidance (GTG) 시스템", 대기, 19(3), pp.269~287 (2009), 한국기상학회
- Kim, J. -H., "Statistics and possible sources of aviation turbulence over South Korea", J. Appl. Meteor. Climatol., 50, pp.311~324 (2011)
- Kim, J. -H., "Evaluations of upper-level turbulence diagnostics performance using the Graphical Turbulence Guidance (GTG) system and Pilot Reports (PIREPs) over East Asia", J. Appl. Meteor. Climatol., 50, pp.1936~1951 (2011)
- 김정훈, "통합지역모델을 이용한 한국형 중·상층 항공난류예측시스템 개발", 대기, 21(4), pp.497~506 (2011), 한국기상학회
- 김정훈, "기상청 현업 통합모델과 조종사기상보고 자료를 이용한 한국형 항공난류 예측시스템 개발", 한국항공운항학회지, 20(4), pp.76~83 (2012), 한국항공운항학회
- Koch, P., "An eventbased jet-stream climatology and typology", Int. J. Climatol., 26, pp.283~301 (2006)
- Lester, P. F., "Turbulence: A New Perspective for Pilots", pp.212~ (1994), Jeppesen Sanderson
- 민재식, "한국에서 발생한 청천난류 사례에서 나타나는 종관규모 대기상태에 대한 연구", 대기, 21(2), pp.69~83 (2011), 한국기상학회
- Mason, I., "A model for assessment of weather forecasts", Aust. Meteor. Mag., 30, pp.291~303 (1982)
- Air Carrier Operations, Calendar Year 2005. Annual review of aircraft accident data, "National Transportation Safety Board", 66~, pp.NTSB (2005), ARC-09[DOI]
- Sharman, R., "An integrated approach to mid- and upper-level turbulence forecasting", Wea. Forecasting, 21, pp.268~287 (2006)