HadGEM-CC 모델의 RCP 시나리오에 따른 전지구 탄소수지 변화 전망
Global Carbon Budget Changes under RCP Scenarios in HadGEM2-CC
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초록
This study is to investigate future changes in carbon cycle using the HadGEM2-Carbon Cycle simulations driven by CO2 emissions. For experiment, global carbon budget isintegrated from the two (8.5/2.6) representative concentration pathways (RCPs) for the periodof 1860~2100 by Hadley Centre Global Environmental Model, version 2, Carbon Cycle (Had-GEM2-CC). From 1985 to 2005, total cumulative CO2 amount of anthropogenic emission prescribedas 156 GtC. The amount matches to the observed estimates (CDIAC) over the sameperiod (136 GtC). As CO2 emissions into the atmosphere increase, the similar increasing tendencyis found in the simulated atmospheric CO2 concentration and temperature. AtmosphericCO2 concentration in the simulation is projected to be 430 ppm for RCP 2.6 at the end of thetwenty-first century and as high as 931 ppm for RCP 8.5. Simulated global mean temperatureis expected to rise by 1.6oC and 3.5oC for RCP 2.6 and 8.5, respectively. Land and ocean carbonuptakes also increase in proportion to the CO2 emissions of RCPs. The fractions of theamount of CO2 stored in atmosphere, land, and ocean are different in RCP 8.5 and 2.6. Furtherstudy is needed for reducing the simulation uncertainty based on multiple model simulations.
Abstract
This study is to investigate future changes in carbon cycle using the HadGEM2-Carbon Cycle simulations driven by CO2 emissions. For experiment, global carbon budget isintegrated from the two (8.5/2.6) representative concentration pathways (RCPs) for the periodof 1860~2100 by Hadley Centre Global Environmental Model, version 2, Carbon Cycle (Had-GEM2-CC). From 1985 to 2005, total cumulative CO2 amount of anthropogenic emission prescribedas 156 GtC. The amount matches to the observed estimates (CDIAC) over the sameperiod (136 GtC). As CO2 emissions into the atmosphere increase, the similar increasing tendencyis found in the simulated atmospheric CO2 concentration and temperature. AtmosphericCO2 concentration in the simulation is projected to be 430 ppm for RCP 2.6 at the end of thetwenty-first century and as high as 931 ppm for RCP 8.5. Simulated global mean temperatureis expected to rise by 1.6oC and 3.5oC for RCP 2.6 and 8.5, respectively. Land and ocean carbonuptakes also increase in proportion to the CO2 emissions of RCPs. The fractions of theamount of CO2 stored in atmosphere, land, and ocean are different in RCP 8.5 and 2.6. Furtherstudy is needed for reducing the simulation uncertainty based on multiple model simulations.
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