생산활동 조절에 따른 과대생산과 미래 경영성과와의 관련성
The Production Balancing and the Association between Overproduction and Future Financial Performance
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초록
과대생산은 재고보유비용의 증가와 최적 미래 생산계획 수립의 어려움으로 미래 수익성이 악화되는 것으로 알려져 있다. 본 연구에서는 차기에 생산조절을 함으로써 과대생산의 미래 수익성에 대한 부정적 영향이 감소하는지와 고정제조원가 비중이 높은 기업이 과대생산의 미래 수익성에 대한 부정적 영향이 더 큰지를 분석하였다. 표본은 거래소 상장 제조업을 대상으로 1994년에서 2011년까지의 5,496개(기업-연도)를 실증에 이용하였다. 실증결과 생산조절을 하지 않는 기업의 과대생산은 미래 수익성에 부정적인 영향을 미치는 것으로 나타났으나 생산조절을 한 기업의 과대생산은 미래 경영성과에 부정적인 영향을 미치지 않은 것으로 나타났다. 실제로 생산조절을 한 기업의 과대생산은 미래 경영성과에 유의한 양(+)의 영향을 미치는 것으로 나타났다. 또한 고정제조원가 비중이 높은 기업의 과대생산은 미래 수익성에 고정제조원가 비중이 낮은 기업에 비하여 더 부정적인 영향을 미치는 것으로 나타났다. 본 연구의 결과는 기업을 경영하는 경영자가 장단기 최적의 경영계획을 수립하는데 도움이 될 것으로 생각되며 재무분석가가 기업의 수익성 분석을 통하여 기업가치 평가와 미래 이익을 예측하는데 유용할 것으로 사료된다.
Abstract
This paper examines how the production balancing and the fixed manufacturing cost ratio affect the association between overproduction and future financial performance. The production balancing means current period’s overproduction(or underproduction) is reversed next period as underproduction(or overproduction). Overproduction unmatched by sales increases inventory holding costs as a result of increased ending inventory and hampers optimal production decisions in the future. Therefore, overproduction will affect negatively future earnings. If firms with overproduction in the current period reduce their inventory to the optimal level by underproducing in the next period, the negative effects of overproduction on the future earnings will be lessened. Firms with the production balancing experience smaller decline of future earnings than firms without the production balancing. Firms can lower fixed costs per unit and boost their earnings by overproducing in the current year. The positive impact of overproduction on current earnings will be reversed in future periods. The negative effect of overproduction on future earnings is expected to be higher for the firms with high fixed manufacturing cost ratio than those with low fixed cost ratio. The sample consists of 5,496 manufacturing firm-years on Korean Stock Exchange from 1994 to 2011. Empirical results are as follows:First, firms with the production balancing do not experience significant decline of future earnings while firms without he production balancing do experience significant decline of future earnings by current overproduction. Second, firms with high fixed cost ratio experience more negative future earnings by current overproduction than firms with low fixed cost ratio. The results of this study may be helpful for firms' decision makers to plan firms' production decisions and for financial analysts and accounting academics to analyze firms' profitability and to predict future earnings.
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