내부통제제도가 재무분석가의 이익예측에 미치는 영향: 중국기업의 COVID－19 위기 전후를 중심으로
Internal Control System Impact on Financial Analysts' Earnings Forecasts: Focusing on Before and After China's COVID－19 Crisis
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[연구목적]본 연구는 중국 기업을 대상으로 내부통제제도와 재무분석가의 이익예측 특성 간의 관계를 실증분석 하고자 한다. 구체적으로, 내부통제제도와 재무분석가의 이익예측 특성 간의 관계를 살펴보고 COVID－19 시기 전후에 이들 간의 관계에 대한 차별적 차이를 분석하였다. [연구방법]2015년부터 2020년까지 중국 A주 상장기업을 대상으로 표본을 선정하였고 중국의 데이터베이스 회사 중 하나인 DIB 기업위험관리기술공사에서 제공하는 DIB(Developement, Innovation, Brand, DIB) 내부통제지수를 사용하여 내부통제품질이 높은 기업과 낮은 기업으로 분류한 후 두 그룹간에 재무분석가의 이익예측 정확성 및 이익예측 편의에 차이가 나는지를 검증하였다. 그리고 COVID－19 위기 전후에 내부통제품질이 높은 기업과 내부통제품질이 낮은 기업간에 이익예측 정확성 및 이익예측 편의에 차별적 차이가 존재하는지를 검증하였다. [연구결과]가설1을 지지하는 결과로서 내부통제품질이 높은 기업일수록 재무분석가의 이익예측 정확도는 높으며, 이익예측 편의는 덜 낙관적인 것으로 나타났다. 또한, 가설2의 검증결과, COVID－19 발생 전후에 내부통제품질이 높은 그룹과 낮은 그룹간에 재무분석가의 이익예측 정확도와 편의에 차이가 있는 것으로 나타났다. 즉, COVID－19 이후 시점에 내부통제품질이 높은 기업과 낮은 기업 간의 이익예측 정확도 및 낙관적인 이익예측 성향의 차이가 증가하였다. 구체적으로 COVID－19 팬데믹 이후에 내부통제품질이 높은 기업이 낮은 기업보다 이익예측 정확도가 높으며 낙관적 예측 성향이 감소하였다. [연구의 시사점]기업 외부환경의 위험이 커질 때 내부통제품질은 외부정보이용자들에게 더 유의미한 정보를 제공할 수 있고, 본 연구를 통해 내부통제제도의 운용의 중요성을 확인한다.
Abstract
[Purpose]This study aimed to empirically analyze the relationship between the internal control system and the earning forecasting characteristics of financial analysts using Chinese companies. Specifically, the relationship between the internal control system and the earning forecasting characteristics of financial analysts was examined. Furthermore, we analyzed the differences in the relationship between them before and after the COVID－19 crisis. [Methodology]The sample of this study is Chinese A－share listed companies from 2015 to 2020. Using the DIB(Developement, Innovation, Brand, DIB) internal control index provided by the DIB database, companies with high and low internal control quality were classified and verified whether there is a difference in the earning forecasting accuracy and earning forecasting bias of financial analysts by the internal control quality. And we tested before and after the COVID－19 crisis, companies with high internal control quality and companies with low internal control quality were verified whether there were differences in the earning forecasting accuracy and earning forecasting bias between groups. [Findings]As a result of supporting Hypothesis 1, the higher the quality of internal control, the higher the accuracy of the financial analyst’s earnings forecasting, and the less optimistic the earnings forecasting bias. In addition, as a result of testing Hypothesis 2, we found that there was a difference in the accuracy and bias of financial analysts’ earning forecasting before and after the COVID－19 crisis. In other words, after the COVID－19 crisis, the internal control system can provide more meaningful information, and the higher the internal control quality, the higher the accuracy of financial analysts’ earnings forecasts and the less optimistic relatively. [Implications]When the risk of the external environment of a company increases, internal control quality can provide more meaningful information to external information users and shows that the internal control system is effective.
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