이산화탄소 중기감축목표에 의한 경제적 효과 추정: CGE 모형의 응용

Abstract

This study analyzes the economic impact of midterm project to reduce emission level of carbon dioxide in Korea using computable general equilibrium model. Simulations comprise of ten scenarios under the constraint of government target for the year 2020 to freeze CO2 emission level or to reduce it down below the level of 2005. Four scenarios are related with measures such as increase in the supply of renewable energy, green homes, and energy efficiency improvement. Six scenarios are based on the assumption of augmenting the productivity of all input resources which is enabled by the application of principles such as 3R, zero emission and circular economy. All simulation results are compared to BAU case and industries such as coal․oil․gas, petrol․coal product, electricity, chemical, transportaion equipment, primary metal are among the most adversely affected by the policy of carbon cap. Simulation outcome confirms that policy measures to increase renewable energy source and higher energy efficiency are costly given the target for the year 2020. The cost measured by the gap in the growth of real GDP and real output by industries as compared with BAU is considerable even though those policies help the society transform the industry into energy less intensive structure. The low-carbon green growth is promising according to the study when the economy's resource productivity is raised throughout industries and society on top of the above mentioned policy options. Higher resource productivity and zero emission secures low carbon society without compromising sustainable economic growth, which can be realized by establishing 3R system, symbiotic eco-industrial development and circular economy.