2010년 중간선거 결과 분석: 거시적 및 미시적 접근
An Analysis on the 2010 Mid-term Election: Macro v. Micro Approach
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본 연구는 2010년 미국의 중간선거 결과를 오바마 대통령 및 정부에 대한 평가의 시각에서 접근해 분석하는 것을 목적으로 한다. 이를 위해 미국의 중간선거를 두 가지 시각 즉, 중간선거를 전국적 사건(national event)으로 보는 거시적 시각과 지역 사건(local event)으로 보는 미시적 시각으로 조명해 보고 오바마 대통령에 대한 평가와 관련성을 살펴보았다. 2010년 중간선거는 정치적 관점과 경제적 관점에서 오바마 대통령에 대한 평가에 근원한 선거결과라 말할 수 있다. 그리고 2010년 중간선거 결과를 미시적 관점으로 접근해 살펴보면 재선에 실패한 민주당 의원들의 대부분은 2006년 이후 의회에 입성한 의원이라는 점을 알 수 있다. 위의 결과를 종합해 보면 2010년 선거결과가 예외적이긴 하지만 철저하게 오바마 정부에 대해 갖는 유권자들의 불만감이 현실적으로 여과 없이 드러난 결과라 말할 수있다.
Abstract
The purpose of this paper is to examine the 2010 mid-term election in terms of evaluation of president Obama. In order to do that, the paper examined the 2010 mid-term election with two perspectives. A macro perspective, mainly focusing on presidential approval ratings and the result previous presidential election, views the mid-term election as a national event while a micro perspective, particularly focusing on an incumbent effect and decreasing competitive districts, considers it as a local event. Results of the 2010 mid-term election can be explained by the evaluation on economic conditions during the Obama government. Likewise, the study found that most Democratic members of legislators who failed to get reelected made it to the House after the 2006 election. The 2010 election results mirrored dissatisfaction of the electorate on the Obama government.
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