110대 하원 초선의원들의 2008년 선거 결과
2008 Election Results of the 110th House Freshmen
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본 연구는 미국 정치구도에 많은 변화를 가져오는 중간선거를 통해 의회에 입성한 초선의원들이 치르는 첫 번째 선거결과에 영향을 미치는 요인은 무엇인지 알아보는 것을 목적으로 한다. 이를 위해 2006년 중간선거를 통해 의회에 진출한 초선의원들의 2008년 선거결과에 대해 분석해 보았고 이와 함께 다른 의원들과의 비교를 통해 나타나는 특징을 살펴보았다. 또한 1996년 선거와 비교해 봄으로써 중간선거를 통해 의회에 진출한 초선의원들이 재선을 위한 첫 번째 선거에서 얻는 결과는 어떠한 상이성과 유사성을 띠며 나타나는지 살펴보았다. 분석 결과를 통해 재선에 도전하는 초선의원들에게 있어 가장 중요한 것은 의회 진출 때 거둔 득표율이라고 말할 수 있다. 이 득표율은 의회 진출에 있어 핵심 요인일 뿐만 아니라 재선에 밑거름이 되는 요인이 되고 있음을 발견할 수 있었다. 또한 초선의원들의 재선은 하원선거 환경과 밀접한 관련이 있음을 발견할 수 있었다. 이와 함께 두 선거에 대한 분석에서 초선의원들도 의회의 양극화 속에서 영향을 받아 의회에 진출한 정치인이며 한편 양극화에 영향을 받아 선거결과가 나타나고 있다는 점을 알 수 있었다. 본 연구는 초선의원 재선결과에 영향을 미치는 요인을 살펴봄으로써 초선의원에 대한 연구를 확장시켰으며 이와 함께 미국 의원들의 재선을 선거환경이라는 새로운 시각에서 조명해야한다는 의미 있는 결과를 얻을 수 있었다.
Abstract
This study aims at examining determinants having an effect on the first reelection of the Freshmen who made a road into the U.S House in midterm election. By doing so, the study analyzed 2008 election results of the Freshmen who made a road into the U.S House in the 2006 midterm election and compared with other legislators' results. Likewise, the study compared it with 1996 election results to seek similar and different outcomes of the two Freshmen's first election. Statistical analyses showed that the voting percentage of midterm election played a significant role in reelection results. Also, statistical results illustrated that atmosphere of the House election such as a coattail effect had an influence on electoral results of the Freshmen. The study found that congressional polarization has played a role not only in their successful entrance to the House but also in their reelection results. These results suggest that studies on the Freshmen should be more focused and electoral results should be analyzed with electoral environment.
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