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고령화, 자동화, 그리고 해외직접투자

Ageing Population, Automation, and Foreign Direct Investment

김동훈|김승엽
미래정치연구소 (Korea Institute for Future Politics)|2023.12|미래정치연구 (JOURNAL OF FUTURE POLITICS)|제13권 제2호|pp. 95-116|DOI 10.20973/jofp.2023.13.2.95

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키워드

고령화Foreign Direct Investment해외직접투자자동화Automation글로벌공급망Global Supply ChainAgeing Society

초록

본 논문은 선진국의 고령화로 인한 생산성 및 경제 성장의 문제를 자동화가 완화할 수 있다는 기존 연구를 기반으로 고령화사회에서 자동화의 수준이 선진국의 해외직접투자 유치에 미치는 영향을 경험적으로 살펴본다. 생산의 자동화(automation)는 고령화사회에 있어 해외직접투자 유치에 긍정적인가? 이론적 측면에서 자동화가 선진국으로의 해외투자에 미치는 영향은 선진국의 고령화라는 추세로 인하여 단순하지 않다. 고령화는 노동 생산성 및 자본의 한계생산 하락을 의미하기에 해외투자에 우호적이지 않지만, 본 연구는 고령화사회에서의 자동화가 노동 생산성의 하락을 상쇄한다는 일련의 연구를 기반으로 자동화가 고령화를 경험하고 있는 선진국으로 해외직접투자를 증가시킬 가능성에 주목하여 고령화 수준이 높음에도 자동화 수준이 높을수록 해외직접투자는 증가함을 경험적으로 분석한다. OECD 국가들과 중국을 대상으로 분석한 경험적 결과는 고령화가 1% 높아질수록 제조업 해외직접투자는 26.59억 달러가 감소하는 것으로 나타났지만, 자동화의 수준에 따라 고령화 수준이 해외직접투자에 미치는 부정적 영향이 감소함을 보여준다. 이러한 경험적 결과는 고령화사회에 있어 자동화 수준의 고도화는 해외직접투자 유입에 긍정적 영향을 미쳐 글로벌공급망의 지속적인 참여에 있어 긍정적 역할을 함을 암시한다.

Abstract

The research empirically examines the effect of automation level on foreign direct investment (FDI) in aging society based on previous studies arguing automation can mitigate the problem in productivity and economic growth due to population aging in developed countries. Is automation in production positive to attract FDI inflow in aging society? The impact of automation on FDI inflow to developed countries is not simple because of the trend of population aging. Population aging is not hospital to foreign direct investment since it leads to a decline in capital’s marginal productivity. Based on a series of studies showing that automation offsets the decline in labor productivity in aging societies, this research focuses on the possibility that automation increases FDI inflow to developed countries experiencing aging, and empirically analyzes that higher levels of automation increase FDI inflow even when aging levels are high. The result from an analysis of OECD countries and China presents that although a 1% increase in population aging results in $2.659 billion decrease in FDI inflow in manufacturing, the negative impact of aging on FDI inflow alleviates with the level of automation. The empirical result implies that a higher level of automation plays a crucial role in participating in the global supply chain since it has a positive effect on FDI inflow in developed countries.

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