인구 구조 변화에 따른 대외투자 파급효과 분석
Demographic Change and its Impact on International Investments
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저출산과 고령화라는 인구 구조 변화로 인하여 한국의 인구는 2019년 11월 현재5,185만 명에서 2028년에는 5,194만 명으로 정점을 찍고 이후 감소할 것이라고통계청이 전망하고 있다. 이러한 인구 구조 변화는 OECD 국가들에서도 비슷하게나타나고 있으며 일본, 독일, 이탈리아의 경우 이미 상당한 수준의 고령화가 진행된상황이다. 이런 배경하에 본 연구는 일국의 안정적인 외환조달기반으로 볼 수 있는대외투자자산이 저출산과 고령화로 인해 어떤 변화가 일어나는지 1995년부터 2018 년까지 30개의 OECD 국가들을 대상으로 패널데이터를 구축하여 실증 분석하였다. 분석 결과, 노년부양률이 높아지고 고령화속도가 빨라질수록 대외자산 규모가 줄어드는 것으로 나타났다. 하지만 유년부양률의 경우, 유년부양률이 높아질수록 대외자산규모가 늘어나는 것으로 나타났는데, 부양률이 높아진다 하더라도 장래에 생산가능인구 비중이 높아지고 결과적으로 잠재 소득이 높아져 대외투자 유인이 높아지는 것을반영한 것으로 보인다. 생산가능인구 증가는 대외투자자산 규모를 늘리는 것으로 분석되었다. 결론적으로, 은퇴 후 소득이 줄어 소비와 불균형이 생기면 대외투자를 매각하여 소비를 충당한다고 볼 수 있다. 이는 외환조달 재원 규모를 줄이는 것이며 대외투자자산이 급감할 경우 궁극적으로 대외신인도 하락까지 유발하여 자본유출 압력으로작용할 가능성도 있다는 것을 시사한다.
Abstract
As of November 2019, Korea's total population has more than doubled since 1960 but is expected to decrease after peaking in 2028. The lowest total fertility rate, longer life expectancy, and the retirement of the baby boomer generation are expected to accelerate the aging of the population. Major industrialized countries are also experiencing such demographic changes. Most of the OECD member countries' median age is over 40, and Japan, Germany, and Italy have already experienced significant aging. Against this background, this study empirically analyzed the effect of demographic changes (low birthrate and aging) on international investments by using panel data of the OECD member countries. According to analysis results, as the old-age dependency ratio increases and the pace of aging becomes faster, international investments, FDI(Foreign Direct Investment), and FPI(Foreign Portfolio Investment) all decrease. This suggests that if income is reduced or gone after retirement, people are expected to sell their overseas investments to cover consumption. As a result, the size of international investments will be scaled down. If those investments fall sharply, it may also lead to a drop in external credit, which may act as a capital outflow pressure. In the case of the youth dependency ratio, however, the amount of international investments increases as the youth dependency ratio goes up. It indicates that even if the youth dependency ratio grows, the proportion of economically active people in the future will eventually increase, which may lead to the rise of potential income, resulting in more international investments. The increase in the number of economically active people was not statistically significant in the model analyzed with the old-age dependency ratio. Still, the increase in the working-age population with the youth dependency ratio was statistically significant to increase the size of international investments. To sum up, the changes in the old-age dependency ratio, the youth dependency ratio, and the aging pace due to the demographic change all affect the international investments. In other words, as aging progresses, people may respond by changing the composition of their overseas investments.
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