저임금 상태의존성 분석
An Analysis of State Dependence of Low-wage Employment in Korea
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초록
본 연구에서는 저임금 상태의존성 분석을 통해 저임금이 더 좋은 일자리로 이행하는 징검다리 역할을 하는지, 아니면 저임금을 지속하거나 저임금과 미취업을 반복하는 함정이 존재하는지를 동태적 다항로짓 임의효과모형(dynamic multinomial logit random effect model)을 이용하여 검토하였다. 또한 이러한 관계성이 2000년 이후에 변화하고 있는지 살펴보기 위해 2007년을 기준으로 이전과 이후의 분석결과를 비교하였다. 분석결과, 남녀 모두 저임금은 진정한(true) 상태의존성이 존재하며, 2007년 이후 상태의존성이 강화된 것으로 분석되었다. 남성은 저임금의 진정한 상태의존성이 존재할 뿐만 아니라, 저임금-미취업(low pay-no pay)의 경향도 존재하는 것으로 추정된다. 여성의 경우 남성에 비해 저임금의 상태의존성이 더 크게 존재하며, 미취업을 지속할 가능성이 매우 높은 것으로 분석되었다.
Abstract
This study analyzes state dependence in low wage employment using dynamic multinomial logit random effect model. I consider the role of the low paid employment as the stepping stone to the better job or as the trap of persistent low paid employment or low pay-no pay cycle. The results are that low wage employment increases the probability of being low-paid and decreasing the chances of being high-paid in the future. This tendency has been intensified since 2007. For men there exists a true state dependence in low wage employment as well as a tendency of low pay-no pay cycle. For women, State dependence in low wage employment is higher than man. In addition, women is higher state dependence in non-employment.
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