구조변화를 고려한 우리나라 전력소비의 변동성 증가에 관한 연구
Analysis of Volatility Increase on Electricity Use considering Structural Breaks in South Korea
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본 연구는 최근 우리나라 전력소비의 변동성 변화 현상에 관해 분석하였다. 구조변화 접근법을 이용하여 1970년 1분기부터 2013년 2분기까지의 분기별 자료를 실증 분석한 결과, 우리나라 전력소비의 변동성은 증가한 것으로 나타났고 이는 조건부평균과 조건부분산의 구조변화 때문인 것으로 분석되었다. 전체 전력소비 변동성 증가의 원천과 원인을 파악하기 위해 산업, 상업･서비스, 가정 부문별로 나누어 살펴보고 생산 및 전력가격과 같은 경제 변수의 충격과 냉난방도일과 같은 기온 충격들이 변동성 증가에 기인하는지 분석하였다. 그 결과 우리나라 전체전력소비 변동성 증가의 원천은 부문별 전체 에너지 사용 중 전력소비의 비중이 상대적으로 높은 상업･서비스 부문인 것으로 나타났다. 또한 전력소비 증가율에 대한 생산, 가격, 기상충격 등과 같은 외부충격의 효과 증대가 전력소비 변동성 증가로 이이진 것으로 나타났다. 이러한 실증 논거들은 전력소비 변동성을 효율적으로 관리하기 위해서 전력소비 자체의 변동성 관리와 함께 경제 및 기상충격들의 영향을 함께 고려해야 함을 시사한다.
Abstract
This study examines volatility changes of electricity consumption in South Korea. The results of empirical analysis using quarterly data from 1970:1 to 2013:2 shows the volatility increase. Structural changes of conditional mean and variance result in this increase. Electricity use in industrial, commercial･service and residential sector are examined for identifying the main sources of the increase. With respect to the reasons of these changes, economic shocks, such as GDP and price of electricity, and temperature shock, such as HDD･CDD, are checked. The specific results show that the main source which have charge of the volatility increase is commercial･service sector whose electricity consumption has a relatively large proportion in its total energy use. In addition, increase in the effect of GDP, Price and temperature shock to the electricity use leads to the volatility expansion. These empirical results suggest that effective management in the volatility of electricity consumption should consider the effect of economic･climatic shock as well as the volatility of electricity use itself.
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