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고령화・도시화와 변동성이 수송 부문 에너지소비에 미치는 효과에 관한 연구 : 78개 국가의 패널 자료 분석

Impacts of Volatility, Ageing and Urbanization on Transport Sector Energy Consumption: Evidence from 78 Countries

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주제분류경제학

초록

본 연구는 1971~2011년까지 78개 국가의 패널 자료를 이용하여 고령화, 도시화 및 수송 부문 에너지소비 변동성이 수송 부문 에너지소비에 주는 영향을 분석하였다. 실증 분석결과, 고령화는 수송 부문 에너지소비를 감소시키는 것으로나타났다. 반면, 도시화는 일정 수준 이하에서만 수송 부문 에너지소비와 음의관계가 있으며, 임계 수준 이상에서는 수송 부문 에너지소비에 영향을 미치지 않는 것을 확인하였다. 본 연구의 분석에 의하면 도시화의 임계수준은 도시 거주인구 비중 기준으로 33.77%로 추정되었다. 또한 수송 부문 에너지소비 변동성이확대되면 수송 부문 에너지소비도 증가하는 것으로 나타났고, 고령화가 진행되면수송 부문 에너지소비뿐만 아니라 수송 부문 에너지소비 변동성도 감소하는 것을확인하였다. 그러므로 고령화와 도시화가 진행되고 수송 부문 에너지소비 변동성이 안정화된다면, 수송 부문의 온실가스 배출량은 에너지 구성 변화가 동반되지않더라도 포화점을 지나 감소 단계에 도달할 수 있음을 시사한다.

Abstract

Using panel data consisting of 78 countries from 1971 to 2011, this paper investigates effects of volatility, ageing and urbanization on the energy consumption in transport sector. Empirical analysis results show that ageing leads transport energy consumption to decrease. Furthermore, urbanization has a threshold effect on the transport energy consumption, which is different according to urbanization level. Specially, urbanization reduces transport energy consumption only when the ratio of people living in cities is below 33.77%. We find that the volatility of transport energy consumption has a positive effect on transport energy consumption. Analysis result additionally confirms that aging can reduce the volatility of transport energy consumption. Therefore, when forecasting transport energy consumption and planing the policy for energy and greenhouse gas emission in transport sector, considering not only economic activity but also ageing, urbanization and volatility is necessary. Also, it is implied that ageing, urbanization and volatility stabilization are important driving factors of transport energy consumption saturation or decreasing state.

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