실물옵션 모형을 이용한 그린리모델링 사업의 투자임계점 분석: 민간 공동주택을 중심으로

Abstract

This study is meaningful in presenting the optimal investment threshold and government support rate for green remodeling projects. This study compared the net present value method with a real option model considering market price uncertainty and irreversibility of investment costs for the analysis of green remodeling economics. As a result of the analysis, the percentage of government support that can secure the economic feasibility of green remodeling projects is more than 70%~80%. When the amount of greenhouse gas reduction increased, the benefits increased and the optimal investment threshold fell. The optimal investment threshold fell as the residual value and government support ratio increased. Given the residual value. The optimal investment threshold in the real options and net present value method differed by about 6 to 8 times. This difference is a result of reflecting price uncertainty and investment irreversibility. It has been confirmed that economic feasibility is secured under the net present value method. On the other hand, economic feasibility was not secured in real options. Therefore, it is a reasonable investment decision to delay the timing of investment until sufficient returns are secured. The investment recovery period was 30 years. Like the UK, France, Germany, and the United States, Korea is expected to contribute greatly to achieving greenhouse gas reduction goals and improving energy poverty for the vulnerable groups in the long run through policies to support green remodeling such as interest-free support and government subsidies.