중국의 경제성장, 이산화탄소 배출량, 재생에너지의 동태적 관계 분석
Dynamic Relations Among Economic Growth, CO2 Emission and Renewable Energy in China
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초록
본 연구는 중국의 경제성장, 이산화탄소 배출량, 재생에너지 발전량간의 동태적 관계를 분석하여 재생에너지의 역할을 규명하고자 1980년부터 2021년까지의 공표 데이터를 이용하여 VAR 모형 추정과 Granger 인과관계 검정을 실시하였다. 2021년 기준으로 중국의 이산화탄소 배출량은 11,420 CO2-Mt으로 세계의 이산화탄소 배출량 1/3을 차지하므로 세계의 기후 위기를 완화하고자 할 때 중국의 이산화탄소 배출량 감소는 매우 중요한 역할을 할 수 있기 때문이다. 분석에서는 중국 재생에너지 발전량 증가가 이산화탄소 배출량 저감에 유의한 영향을 미친다는 결과를 도출하지 못하였다. 분석결과에 따르면 중국의 전년도 GDP 성장률이 10% 일 때에 중국의 이산화탄소 배출량을 1.4%만큼 증가시켰지만, 이와 함께 중국의 전년도 이산화탄소 배출량 증가율이 10% 일 때에 중국의 재생에너지를 5%만큼 증가시켰다. 이러한 결과는 중국에서 경제성장이 이루어지면서 이산화탄소 배출량이 증가하여 환경질이 악화되면, 재생에너지 이용에 대한 인식이 커져서 재생에너지 보급이 많아진다는 것을 의미한다. 이는 전원 구성에서의 재생에너지 비중보다는 재생에너지의 필요성에 대한 인식이 이산화탄소 배출 저감에 더 큰 영향을 미치는 것으로 해석된다.
Abstract
This study analyzes the relationship between China’s economic growth, carbon dioxide emissions, and renewable energy generation from 1980 to 2021 using the VAR model and Granger causality tests. The crucial role of China’s reduction in carbon dioxide emissions, which accounted for one-third of the global total at 11,420 CO2-Mt in 2021, is underscored in the context of the global climate crisis. Our findings do not indicate a significant impact of China’s renewable energy production on carbon dioxide emissions reduction. Instead, China’s carbon dioxide emissions increase by 1.4% with a 10% GDP growth rate in the previous year, and renewable energy increases by 5% with a 10% carbon dioxide emissions growth rate in the previous year. This suggests that as carbon dioxide emissions rise due to China’s economic growth, there is a corresponding increase in renewable energy awareness and utilization. Our study suggests that the awareness of the need for renewable energy has a more significant impact on reducing carbon dioxide emissions than the proportion of renewable energy in the power generation mix.
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