Impact of Climate Change on Residential Electricity Consumption in Gwangju Metropolitan City by 2050

Abstract

This study examines the impact of climate change on residential electricity consumption, CO2 emissions, and associated carbon costs in Gwangju Metropolitan City, South Korea, under Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP3-7.0) scenario. Using an Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model, we analyze the long-term relationship between electricity consumption and key variables, including average temperature, its squared term, precipitation, the share of single-person households, cooling and heating degree days. The estimation results confirm a statistically significant U-shaped relationship between temperature and electricity consumption, with demographic shifts also emerging as major contributors to rising demand. In contrast, precipitation and degree days show no significant effects. Applying the model’s elasticities to SSP3-7.0 projections, we estimate that annual residential electricity consumption will increase by 4.8% in 2040 and 9.5% in 2050 relative to 2022, with the largest increases occurring in summer. Under the NGFS “Fragmented World” scenario, the annual carbon cost is projected to rise from 46 million KRW in 2023 to nearly 48.7 billion KRW by 2050. These findings highlight the urgent need for demand-side management and integrated climate-energy strategies to address the growing environmental and economic burdens of climate change in the residential energy sector.