징병제도 유지비용 분석을 통한 과도기적 병역제도 필요성 연구

Abstract

This study analyzed the changes in available military resources and the maintenance cost of the conscription system based on population estimation and active-duty determination rate to solve the problem of low birth rate, decrease in conscription resources due to the demographic cliff, and the resulting limitation of military recruitment. In addition, it is necessary to preemptively review the cost prediction model of the conscription system so that the current military service system can be operated stably despite growing uncertainties in the future military service paradigm and defense power structure. As a result of predictive analysis, 300,000 troops are required to maintain the current conscription system until 2050, and from 2034, when military service resources are insufficient, the cost of reinforcing advanced weapons systems to replace the gap in combat power is calculated, and the annual maintenance cost to maintain the conscription system is about 3.2∼6.3 trillion won. Based on the security effects of the military and weapons system at the completion of Defense Reform 2.0, the cost of military service is expected to increase due to the reduction in conscription resources, changes in the security environment, and changes in the political environment.