비수도권 출신 대학졸업자의 귀환이동 결정요인
A Study on the Determinants of Return Migration of the College Graduates Originated from Non-Capital Region
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대졸 청년층의 귀환이동은 국가적으로는 인적자본의 지역 간 격차를 축소시켜 지역균형발전에 기여하고, 개별 지역 차원에서는 지역인재유출을 완화하고 우수인재의 귀환으로 지역인적자본을 확충하여 지역경제성장에 기여한다. 본 연구의 목적은 대졸 청년층을 중심으로 귀환이동의 결정요인과 귀환이동자의 특성을 분석하여 청년층 인재의 귀환이동 촉진을 위한 정책적 시사점을 제시하는 것이다. 본 연구는 2016 GOMS 자료를 기반으로 로짓모형을 적용하여 비수도권 출신 대학졸업자의 귀환이동 결정요인을 분석하였으며, 주요 연구결과는 다음과 같다. 첫째, 비수도권 고교 출신이 수도권 대학을 졸업한 경우 귀환이동의 확률은 낮아지며, 이는 수도권 대졸자의 공간의존성이 강하다는 것을 시사한다. 최초이동자 중 고등학교와 대학이 동일 광역권에 입지할 경우 귀환이동 확률이 높아지며, 이러한 결과는 지리적 근접성과 귀환이동의 밀접한 관련성을 시사한다. 둘째, 고등학교나 대학의 학업성과가 우수하면 귀환이동의 확률이 낮아지며, 이는 지역의 우수인재는 일단 유출되면 귀환하기 어렵다는 것을 시사한다. 셋째, 부모의 학력이 높을수록 귀환이동 확률은 낮아지며, 부모의 학력과는 무관하게 부모의 자산이 많을수록 귀환이동 확률은 증가시키는 것으로 추정되었다. 넷째, 고교지역의 일인당 개인소득이 대학지역보다 높으면 귀환이동 확률이 높은 것으로 나타났으나, 청년실업률 비율은 전체 모형과 4년제 대학졸업자 모형에서는 유의하지 않은 것으로 나타났다.
Abstract
The return migration of college graduates contributes to balanced regional development by narrowing the regional gap of human capital, and it contributes to regional economic growth by mitigating brain drain and expanding local human capital by return of talented people. The purpose of this study is to analyze the determinants of return migration of the college graduates originated from the non-capital region, and to present some policy implications for promoting the return migration. Based on the 2016 GOMS data, this study applied the logit model to analyze the determinants of return migration of college graduates from non-capital region, and the main findings are as follows. First, if a graduate from a non-capital high school graduated from a university in the capital region, the probability of return migration will be lowered, suggesting that the spatial dependence of college graduates in the capital region is strong. If high schools and colleges are located in the same extensive economic region, the probability of return migration increases, and these results suggest that geographical proximity is closely related with return migration. Second, good academic performance at high schools or colleges reduces the chances of return migration, suggesting that it is difficult for the local talented to return once they are leaked. Third, it was estimated that the higher the educational background of parents, the lower the probability of return migration, and the more assets of parents, regardless of their educational background, the higher the probability of return migration. Fourth, if the per capita income of high school region is higher than that of college region, it is more likely to return to the origin region, but the youth unemployment rate is not statistically significant in the overall model and the four-year college graduation model.
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