타지키스탄의 경제체제 전환의 성과와 문제점에 대한 연구
A Study on Outcome and Problems of Economic Transition in Tajikistan
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본 논문의 목적은 독립 이후 타지키스탄의 경제체제 전환의 성과와 그 문제점 및 과제를 분석하는 것으로, 경제적 초기조건을 비롯하여 체제전환 정책과 그 성과, 경제실적에 대한 평가와 지속가능한 성장을 위한 과제를 제시하는 데 초점을 맞춘다. 타지키스탄 경제는 1991년 구소련 붕괴 후 연방정부로부터의 전면적인 보조금 중단과 구소련내부의 상품판매시장의 상실, 그리고 1990년대 초의 내전이 초래한 엄청난 경기하락으로부터 아직 충분히 회복되지 못했다. 1990년대 초반에는 급격한 경기하락과 거시경제의 불안정을 겪었으며 인구의 급속한 빈곤화가 뒤따랐다. 2000년대 들어 상대적으로높은 수준의 경제성장을 기록했으나, 체제전환에 착수한 지 20년에 가까운 시간이 지나서야 초기의 경제규모를 가까스로 회복했을 뿐이다. 타지키스탄은 여전히 CIS 국가 중 가장 빈곤한 국가로서 점점 쇠퇴하는 인프라와무너지는 교육ㆍ보건시스템, 그리고 무기력한 제도를 가지고 있다. 타지크 정부는 2000년에 이르기까지 환율과 가격 및 무역의 자유화를 단행하고, 금융부문 개혁과 토지 및소규모 기업의 사유화를 실시했다. 타지키스탄은 법률개혁과 경제 자유화 분야에서는시장경제로의 괄목할 만한 진척을 달성했다고 평가할 수 있다. 그러나 전체적으로 볼때 타지키스탄의 시장화 과정은 대단히 불균형적이라는 사실 또한 부인할 수 없다. 이는 한편으로 중ㆍ대규모 국유기업의 사유화를 유보한 데 따른 결과이며, 다른 한편으로는 산업정책과 경쟁촉진정책을 미룬 데 따른 결과이다. 따라서 빠른 시간 내에 이러한제도적 구조를 탈피하는 구조개혁을 실시할 필요가 있다.
Abstract
This paper aims to analyze the performance, problems, and challenges of economic transition in Tajikistan since its independence, so focuses mainly on the country’s initial conditions and transition policy for the analysis of its outcome, major obstacles to reform, and urgent task for sustainable economic growth. The Tajikistan economy has not recovered from the total cut of subsidies in 1991 when the Soviet Union collapsed,and the enormous economic decline that was caused by the civil war in the early 1990s. Along with this, during the first half of 1990s, there came a steep decline in production and macroeconomic instability, and followed the rapid impoverishment of the population. Although the country has recorded relatively high growth rate in the 2000s,it has reached merely the initial GDP level only when nearly 20 years has been passed since the beginning of economic transition. Tajikistan is still the poorest of the CIS countries, burdened with decaying infrastructure, crumbling health and education systems, and weak institutions. By 2000,the government had liberalized the exchange rate, prices and trade, reformed the financial sector and privatized many lands and small enterprises. It can be said that Tajikistan has been achieving remarkable progress toward its transition to a market economy in fields of law reform and economic liberalization. However, obviously, the marketization process in Tajikistan as a whole is greatly unbalanced. On the one hand,it is the result of keeping back the privatization of mid and large-scale SOEs, and on the other, industrial and competition-promoting policies. Therefore, it will be necessarily needed to broke down quickly such kind of institutional structure and implement drastic structural reform.
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