우즈베키스탄과 몽골의 시장경제 체제전환 초기 10년: 전략선택의 배경과 사유화 과정의 경로
The First 10 Years of Transition Process in Uzbekistan and Mongolia: The Background of Strategy Selection and Privatization
0
조회
0
다운로드
7
인용
0
참고문헌
키워드
초록
사회주의 경제체제에서 시장경제로의 전환 과정에서 우즈베키스탄과 몽골은 매우 다른 경로를 걸어왔다. 우즈베키스탄은 체제전환 이후에도 사회주의 기득권 세력이 그대로 유지되었고, 에너지 자원에 대한 자급체계가 이루어지면서 급격한 개방보다는 시장경제로의 점진적 이행과 사유화 과정을 진행했다. 이 과정에서 우즈베키스탄에서는 기존세력에 대항할 수 있는 정치적 저항세력이 부재했고, 기존의 씨족집단을 기반으로 한 엘리트들은 바우처 사유화를 통한 대중사유화보다는 점진적 사유화 정책을 추진하여 자신들의 국가 자산과 경제에 대한 영향력을 그대로 유지시켰다. 몽골은 우즈베키스탄과는 달리 씨족적 전통에 기반을 둔 씨족 중심의 세력구도가 정립되어 있지 않았다. 반면, 공산당에 대항하는 민주세력이 1980년대 후반부터 성장했으며 체제전환 과 정에서 이들 반정부 민주세력과 엘리트들은 자립이 불가능한 에너지 자원의 부족과 초기 경제의 어려움으로 말미암아 서구의 원조를 받아들이면서 신자유주의 방식의 체제전환을 급속히 추진했다. 특히, 사유화 과정에서 몽골은 바우처 사유화를 통한 대형 국유자산의 대량 사유화 과정을 선택하여 급진적 사유화 정책을 추진했다. 양국의 체제전환 정책과 과정은 정책 결정의 배경이 되는 구 정치엘리트의 세력유지와 새로운 민주주의 세력의 부상이라는 측면에서 차이를 보였고, 에너지 자원의 유무라는 초기 경제적 상황과 서구의 원조정책의 유입에서도 다른 양상을 나타냈다. 이와 같은 상이점은 결국 체제전환의 사유화 과정에서 점진적 사유화와 급속한 사유화라는 다른 정책을 추진하게 했다.
Abstract
Uzbekistan and Mongolia have had a different transition and reform process. Before the breakup of Soviet Union, they were heavily dependent on the ties with the Communist countries. But after the breakup of Soviet Union, they had to choice the strategy and method of system transition to market economy and the two countries selected very opposite ones. This difference was originated from their political and economical situation. This study analyzes that the initial economic and political conditions of the two countries. The economic difference of Uzbekistan and Mongolia was the possession of natural and energy resources. Uzbekistan was self-sufficient for the resources like oil, natural gas, and coals and the political elites could do rent-seeking and they do not have any motivations to speed up reform. They postponed the reform process keeping their own profit by rent-seeking. Mongolia had abundant energy and natural resources but they were underdeveloped. So, political elites had to open domestic market and accept the Western technology and capital to develop them. And Mongolia had to import energy resources to use. Mongolia accepted the shock therapy of Western economic reform. In this transition process, the political elites of Uzbekistan remained intact. They were based on the regional clan and they had no intention to accelerate reform process because they already had existing right on resources. And in Uzbekistan, there were no political opposition party or civil activities to affect on the government. The Uzbek government accepted gradual privatization process. In contrast, there were political forces to stand against Communist party in Mongolia in late 1980s and early 1990s. They opposed the socialist system and drove the Western reform. There were no clan based political power in Mongolia, and they were heavily dependent on the Western aid propelling fast reform and mass voucher privatization.
참고문헌 (62)
- 금희연, "몽골의 체제전환과 민주화과정에 관한 연구 - 역대 총선과 대선을 중심으로 -", 통일전략, 9(2), pp.181~224 (2009), 한국통일전략학회
- 김영진, "체제전환의 논리와 사유화의 경제적 귀결 : 러시아의 경우를 중심으로", 슬라브학보, 12(2) (1998), 한국슬라브학회
- 김홍진, "몽골의 경제개혁과 재정구조 변화", 국제지역연구, 1(2) (1997), 한국외국어대학교 국제지역연구센터
- 대외경제정책연구원, "몽골편람" (1995), 대외경제정책연구원
- 대외경제정책연구원, "KIEP 세계경제 10월호", 대외경제정책연구원, ~ (1999)
- 박상남, "우즈베키스탄 국가건설 과정: 권위주의체제 성격규정을 중심으로, In 유라시아의 체제전환 20년: 국가건설과 경제발전", HK 러시아-유라시아 연구사업단 국내학술대회 (2011), 한양대학교 아태지역연구센터
- 방민석, "대기업규제정책에 대한 신제도주의적 분석: 정책변화의 경로의존성을 중심으로", 한국행정학보, 37(4), pp.233~259 (2003), 한국행정학회
- 양길현, "몽골 민주화의 추동요인과 진전과정: 1990총선과 1992년 총선을중심으로", 국제정치논총, 38(2) (1998), 한국국제정치학회
- 이정진, "몽골의 민주주의 정착과 외교정책 방향", 신아세아, 16(3), pp.200~225 (2009), 신아시아연구소
- 우즈베키스탄지배집단과 권력 엘리트 연구, "이재영", 대외경제정책연구원, ~, pp.전략지역 심층연구 10-03 (2010)
- 하태수, "제도변화의 형태: 역사적 신 제도주의를 중심으로", 행정논총, 39(3) (2001), 서울대학교 행정대학원
- Ганжуров, А., "Деятельность монгольской народно-революционной партиипосле отставки Ю. Цеденбала (1985–1990 гг.)", Власть (2011)
- Расулев, А.Ф., "Десять лет экономических реформ вУзбекистане: итоги и перспективы", Экономическая наука совре-менной России, (4) (2001)
- Aslund, A., "Why Has Russia’s Economic Transformation Been So Arduous?", The World Bank Annual Conference on Development Economics (1999)
- Auty, M. R., "Patterns of Development: Resources, Policy and Economic Growth" (1995), Edward Arnold
- Auty, M. R., "Natural Resources and ‘Gradual’ Reform in Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan", Natural Resources Forum, 27 (2003)
- Batbayar, T., "Mongolia in 1992: Back to One-Party Rule", Asian Survey, 33(1) (1992)
- Batbayar, T., "Mongolia in 1993: A Fragile Democracy", Asian Survey, 34(1) (1993)
- Batbayar, T., "Mongolian-Russian Relations in the Past Decade", Asian Survey, 43(6) (2003)
- Blackmon, P., "Back to the USSR: why the Past Does Matter in Explaining Differences in the Economic Reform Processes of Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan", Central Asian Survey, 24(4) (2005)
- Collins, K., "Clan Politics and Regime Transition in Central Asia" (2006), Cambridge University Press
- Cypher, M. J., "The Process of Economic Development, 3rd Edition" (2009), Routledge
- Transition Report in 1999: Financial sector in transition, "EBRD", ~ (1999)
- Transition Report 2000: Employment, skills and transition, "EBRD", ~ (2000)
- Fish, S., "The Inner Asian Anomaly: Mongolia’s Democratization in Comparative Perspective", Communist and Post-Communist Studies, 34 (2001)
- Fritz, V., "Mongolia: Dependent Democratization", Journal of Communist Studies and Transition Politics, 18(4) (2002)
- Fritz, V., "Mongolia: The Rise and Travails of a Deviant Democracy", Democratization, 15(4) (2008)
- Gray, W. C., "In Search of Owners: Privatization and Corporate Governance in Transition Economies", World Bank Research Observer, 11(2) (1996)
- Green, T. A., "Comparative Development of Post-Communist Civil Societies", Europe-Asia Studies, 54(3) (2002)
- Hall, A. P., "Political Science and the Three New Institutionalism", Political Studies, 44 (1996)
- Hallman, S. J., "Winners Take All: The Politics of Partial Reform in Post-communist Transitions", World Politics, 50(2) (1998)
- Fifteen Years of Transformation in the Post-Communist World: Rapid Reformers Outperformed Gradualists, "Havrylyshyn, O.", Center for Global Liberty and Prosperity, ~ (2007)
- Heaton, R. W., "Mongolia in 1990: Upheaval, Reform, but No Revolution Yet", Asian Survey, 31(1) (1991)
- Uzbekistan at Ten: Repression and Instability, "ICG", ICG, ~, pp.ICG Asia Report, No. 21 (2001)
- World Economic Outlook 1997, "IMF", International Monetary Fund, ~ (1997)
- Republic of Uzbekistan: Recent Economic Developments, "IMF", IMF, ~, pp.IMF Country Report 98 (1998), 116
- World Economic Outlook 2000, "IMF", International Monetary Fund, ~ (2000)
- World Economic Outlook 2011: Slowing Growth Rising Risks, "IMF", International Monetary Fund, ~ (2011)
- Privatization in Mongolia, "Jermakowicz, W.", Center for Social and Economic Research, ~ (1997)
- Jones, Loung. P., "Institutional Change and Political Continuity in Post-Soviet Central Asia: Power, Perceptions and Pacts" (2004), University of Cambridge
- Agrarian Reform, Gender, and Land Rights in Uzbekistan, "Kandiyoti, D.", ~, pp.Social Policy and Development Program Paper, No. 11 (2002)
- Kaser, M., "Economic Transition in Xix Central Asian Economies", Central Asian Survey, 16(1) (1997)
- King, L., "Shock Privatization: The Effects of Rapid Large-Scale Privatization on Enterprise Restructuring", Politics & Society, 31(3) (2003)
- Ownership and Governance on the Morning After: The Initial Results of Privatization in Mongolia, "Korsun, G.", IRIS, ~, pp.IRIS Working Paper, No. 95 (1994)
- Korsun, G., "Politics and Economics of Mongolia’s Privatization Program", Asian Survey, 35(5) (1995)
- Krasner, D. S., "Approaches to the State: Alternative Conceptions and Historical Dynamics", Comparative Politics, 16(2) (1984)
- Private Sector Assessment for Uzbekistan, "Lin, C.", ADB, ~ (2005)
- Privatization in Eastern Europe: The Case of Poland, "Lipton, D.", ~, pp.Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, No. 2 (1990)
- Circumstances and Choice: The Role of Initial Conditions and Policies in Transition Economies, "Melo, de M.", The World Bank, ~ (1997)
- Murrell, P., "Evolutionary and Radical Approaches to Economic Reform", Economies of Planning, 25 (1992)
- Murrell, P., "What is Shock Therapy? What Did It Do in Poland and Russia?", Post-Soviet Affairs, 9(2) (1993)
- Nixon, F., "Privatization, Income Distribution, and Poverty: The Mongolian Experience", World Development, 39(9) (2003)
- North, C. D., "Institutions, Institutional Change, and Economic Performance" (1990), Cambridge University Press
- Pomfret, R., "Transition and Democracy in Mongolia", Europe-Asia Studies, 52(1) (2000)
- Resource Management and Transition in Central Asia, Azerbaijan, and Mongolia, "Pomfret, R.", Peterson Institute for International Economies, ~, pp.Working paper series 11-8 (2011)
- Risse-Kappen, T., "Ideas Do Not Float Freely: Transnational Coalitions, Domestic Structures, and the End of the Cold War", International Organization, 48(2) (1994)
- Rossabi, M., "Modern Mongolia: from Khans to Commissars to Capitalists" (2005), University of California Press
- Savas, E. S., "Privatization in Post-Socialist Countries", Public Administration Review, 52(6) (1992)
- Tuncer-Kilavuz, I., "Political and Social Networks in Tajikistan and Uzbekistan:'Clan,' Region and Beyond", Central Asian Survey, 28(3) (2009)
- Walder, G. A., "Elite Opportunity in Transitional Economies", American Sociological Review, 68(6) (2008)
- International Crisis Group, "Провал реформы в Узбекистане: Пути действийдля международного сообщества", Доклад МГПК по ЦентралнойАзии, (76) (2004)