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도시별 패널데이터를 이용한 외국은행의 대중국 진출 지역선정 요인분석

The Determination of Foreign Banking Location in China: Using City-Level Panel Data

이천국|함정호
한국비교경제학회 (The Korea Association For Comparative Economics)|2011.03|비교경제연구 (The Comparative Economic Review)|제18권 제1호|pp. 121-169|DOI 10.23014/kace.18.1.201103.121

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참고문헌

키워드

중국Chinapanel datalocation choice패널 자료foreign banks외국 은행지역 선정
주제분류경제학

초록

글로벌 금융위기 가운데서도 외국계 은행은 중국시장에 대한 투자를 꾸준히 늘리고 있다. 이 연구에서는 1996~2007년까지 중국의 도시별 자료를 패널자료로 구축하여 중국시장에 진출한 외국계 은행의 지역선정 결정요인을 분석하였다. 외국계 은행의 중국 지역선정 현황을 들여다보면, 외국계 은행이 단순히 지역총생산이나 1인당 지역총생산이 높은 도시에만 진출하지 않고 있다는 점을 알 수 있다. 이런 점들을 고려하여 이 연구에서는 시장기회 추구, 고객서비스 제공, 금융규제정책, 시장리스크 등의 가설을 세우고, 이런 가설이 외국계 은행의 중국시장 진출에 있어서 부합되는지를 실증분석해 보았다. 분석결과에 따르면, 대체로 시장기회 가설에서는 1인당 예금액, 고객 서비스제공 가설에서는 외국인 직접투자 요인이 유의한 것으로 나타났다. 금융규제완화 정책과 금융시장 위험요인은 단기적인 면에서 외국계 은행의 진출에 영향을 줄 수 있으나, 장기적으로 볼 때는 외국계 은행의 진출에 큰 영향을 미치지 않는 것으로 나타났다. 도시별 공통요인 점수와 패널데이터 종합점수를 계산해 본 결과, 외국계 은행이 선호하는 도시는 상해, 북경, 광주, 천진, 심천등 순으로 나타났는데, 이러한 순위는 대체로 외국계 은행의 투자지역 선호도를 말해 주는 동시에 실제 외국계 은행의 영업점 설립 순위를 반영하고 있는 것으로 나타났다. 마지막으로 이러한 분석결과를 바탕으로 중국에 진출하고자 하는 한국 상업은행들의 지역선정 등과 관련된 몇 가지 시사점을 정리하였다.

Abstract

Even during the global financial crisis, foreign banks sped up their expansion in China. This paper aims to examine what factors affect the location choice of foreign multinational banks using city-level panel data during 1996-2007. Another aim of this study is to determine city attractiveness rankings for foreign banks that plan to or have made location choices in China, using the new method based on the multi-index panel data during 1996–2007. Considering that there are few foreign banks in many high-income cities, several assumptions are made, such as market opportunity, “follow-the-customer,” financial regulation, and market risk to check out their decision-making process in choosing location. Based on the results, policy implications and other suggestions for the Korean banks are proposed. The empirical results show when the whole area taken to be considered, as the decisive factors of foreign banks entering China, real deposit per capita and FDI turn out to be statistically positive, but the effect of financial regulations and crisis factor show statistically non-significant. The factor analysis which is based on panel data also supported the two hypotheses of market opportunity and follow-the-customer. Based on that, the cities which foreign banks prior to are Shanghai, Beijing, Guangzhou, Tianjin, Shenzhen in turn. And it indicates the order of establishment of foreign bank branches in general. From the perspective of Korean banking, we summarized several implications in terms of location choice in China.

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