리쇼어링(Reshoring)의 주요 국가 사례와 결정요인 분석- 4차 산업혁명이후 기술혁신의 영향을 중심으로
Analysis on reshoring of major countries and determinants - Focused on the Influence of Technology Innovation after the Fourth Industrial Revolution
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본 논문은 주요 국가들의 리쇼어링 사례와 거시분석 모형과 ICT 발전 변수를 결합하여 리쇼어링의 증가 원인을 실증적으로 규명하려고 했다. 미국, 일본 등 국가들의사례분석을 통해 4차 산업혁명의 영향이 나타나기 시작한 것으로 확인하였다. 다만 일부 리쇼어링 지원정책에도 불구하고 독일 등 유럽에서는 아직 4차 산업혁명의 영향이제한적으로 나타났다. 거시분석 모형에서는 4차 산업혁명이 진전되었다고 판단되는OECD 국가들을 대상으로 실증분석 하였다. 리쇼어링에 대해 시의성과 신뢰성을 갖춘거시적 통계데이터를 구할 수 없기 때문에 각국에서 유입된 FDI 규모를 리쇼어링의대용 변수로 가정하고 실시한 거시적 분석의 동태적 패널모형 분석 결과 다음과 같다. 첫째, 기존의 이론에서와 같이 FDI의 유입에 미치는 거시적 변수들인 시장규모, 실질실효환율, 무역 개방도, 평균 임금수준 등이 각국의 FDI 유입에 영향을 미치고 있음이확인 되었다. 둘째, FDI의 결정요인, 즉 리쇼어링 중에서 임금이 중요한 음(-)의 영향을 미치고 있는 것으로 나타났다. 최근 리쇼어링하는 과정에서 임금 등 비용하락 유인이 상당한 작용을 하고 있음이 반영된 것으로 추정된다. 셋째, ICT 산업의 수출비중이높은, 즉 ICT 발전정도가 높을수록 더 많은 외국인투자가 유입되었던 것으로 나타나고있어 ICT로 대표되는 4차 산업발전이 리쇼어링에 상당한 영향을 미치고 있음을 확인할 수 있었다.
Abstract
This paper tried to empirically investigate the causes of reshoring by combining with the case studies and macroeconomic model involved ICT development variables of which the advanced OECD countries consist. Since the macroeconomic and statistical data can not be timely and correctly obtained at the macro level, the size of FDI inflow from each country is used as a substitute variable for reshoring. After analysis of dynamic panel model it was confirmed with following reasons that the fourth industrial revolution had a considerable influence: First, it is confirmed that market size, real effective exchange rate, trade openness, average wage level affect FDI inflow, ergo Reshoring, what is consistent with already existed studies. Second, wages occur to impact a significant negative determinants of FDI so that we can resume that wages (incl. with other cost factors) incentives have played a significant role in recent reshoring phenomenon. Third, because of the fact that the higher the level of ICT development, the more FDI inflows, it can be concluded that the fourth industrial development represented by ICT has a considerable influence on the Reshoring.
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