논문KCI 등재
“무역의 평화적 효과이론”과 “민주적 평화이론”에 관한 실증분석 - 남북한 교역을 중심으로 -
An Empirical Study on “the Peace Effect Theory of Trade” and “Democratic Peace Theory” - with Trade between South and North Korea -
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참고문헌
키워드
주제분류경제학
초록
이 연구는 여러 형태들의 남북한 교역이 남북한 간의 정치적 분쟁에 어떻게영향을 주고 있는가를 실증적으로 분석하였다. 실증적 분석결과, 세 분류별 남북한 교역들은 남북한 간의 분쟁에 영향을 주지 않는 것으로 나타났다. 이러한 실증적 분석은 무역이 증가하면 분쟁이 감소한다는 “무역의 평화적 효과이론”과는 다른 결과이다. 그 이유는 부분적으로, 민주적 평화이론의 주장과 같이, 독재국가인 북한의 지도자가 남한과의 교역증가로 인해 남한에 대한 분쟁을 감소시켜야 하는 정치ᆞ제도적 제약을 받지 않기 때문인 것으로 추정된다.
Abstract
This study analyses empirically how various types of trade flows between South and North Korea affect political conflicts between two Koreas. The empirical results show that most types of trade flows between South and North Korea do not affect to political conflicts between two Koreas. These results are different from “the peace effect theory of trade”, since autocratic leader in North Korea may not face political institutional constraints to avoid conflicts with growing trade flows between North and South Korea as democratic peace theorists argue.
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