지역의 인구구조가 지방재정에 미치는 영향

Abstract

The purpose of this study is to examine the influence of demographic change on local public finance. In the context of this, the study basically has an hypothesis that different population structures of local authorities might influence on the expenditure structure of local public services as well as the revenue structure of local governments. To examine the hypothesis, this study developed a regression model and applied it to local authorities in Korea, particularly, City and County governments, using both fiscal and population data of 2003 and 2005. In doing so, the study delineated the areas with which particular population groups demand relatively high expenditures (consumption) in relation with the current budget specification of expenditures by the economic functions. Major findings of the analysis are as follows. Expenditure for economic development showed an increasing trend with the increase of the mid-year age groups. And the expenditures for both education & culture and social welfare showed changing signs with changes in the population structure of local authorities. Finally, local tax revenue of local authority showed a decreasing tendency as a relative portion of the aged group(above 65 years old) of local authorities increases.