지방세 추계모형 연구: 지수평활법을 중심으로
A Study on the Forecasting Model of Local Tax Revenue by Exponential Smoothing Method
0
조회
0
다운로드
6
인용
0
참고문헌
키워드
초록
The purpose of this study is to find a forecasting model of local tax revenues, not only an accurate but practical method, among a number of alternative ones. We apply an exponential smoothing method to forecasting local tax revenues, considering the practical limits revealed in the previous studies. The results of empirical analyses reveal that exponential smoothing method is more accurate than the existing methods used for forecasting local tax revenues both in the share tax system of central government and the budget process of local governments in Korea. According to the study, the method has three advantages as follow: First, the method can make forecasting error smaller. Second, it is a simple and practical method. Third, because it is a scientific method, the forecasting results could be more objective.
Abstract
The purpose of this study is to find a forecasting model of local tax revenues, not only an accurate but practical method, among a number of alternative ones. We apply an exponential smoothing method to forecasting local tax revenues, considering the practical limits revealed in the previous studies. The results of empirical analyses reveal that exponential smoothing method is more accurate than the existing methods used for forecasting local tax revenues both in the share tax system of central government and the budget process of local governments in Korea. According to the study, the method has three advantages as follow: First, the method can make forecasting error smaller. Second, it is a simple and practical method. Third, because it is a scientific method, the forecasting results could be more objective.
참고문헌 (29)
- "세수추계모형의 예측력 비교", 22(1, 2) (2000), 한국개발연구원
- "세수추계모형에 관한 연구", 16(2) (2003), 한국산업경제학회
- "대구시의 지방세수입을 대상으로" (1992)
- "시계열 분석의 이해" (1999), 교우사
- "서울시 세입예측을 위한 모형연구" (2001), 서울시정개발연구원
- "지방세 추계의 왜곡요인과 개선방안" (2003), 한국조세연구원
- "세수추계 기법개발 연구" (2000), 한국조세연구원
- "지방세 추계오차가 지방교부세 배분에 미치는 효과 분석", 19(4) (2005), 한국지방행정연구원
- "지방세 추계액의 오차분석", 15(2) (2001)
- "지방자치단체의 재정변수에 대한 실증분석", 11(2) (1996)
- "지방세 세목별 세수추계에 관한 연구" (2003), 한국조세연구원
- "“세수추계모형간의 정확성 비교 세수추계모형개발에 관한 연구｣" (1990)
- "지방세수 예측을 위한 모형의 탐색 : 광역자치단체를 중심으로" (1998), 한국지방행정연구원
- "지방세 세수추계모형에 관한 연구 : 교부세 산정방식 개선과 재정운영계획성 제고를 중심으로" (2006)
- "교부세 하의 지방세추계모형고찰 및 개선방안 연구", 11(2) (2006), 한국지방재정학회
- "지방세 수입 예측 기법의 탐색 및 활용", 35(4) (2001)
- "지방교부세산정해설｣", 행정자치부
- "국세청; http:"
- "국회도서관; http:"
- "통계청 통계정보시스템; http:"
- "한국조세연구원; http:"
- "행정자치부; http:"
- "On the Performance and Use of Government Revenue Forecasts", 52(4) (1999)
- "“Municipal Revenue Forecasting with Time-Series Models ” American Review of Public Administration", pp.45~59 (1990)
- "The M3-Competition", 16, pp.433~436 (2000)
- "” International Journal of Forecasting", pp.5~29 (1993)
- "Dynamic Revenue Estimating: Will it Work for Michigan?" (1997), Michigan Department of Treasury
- "Public Finance in Theory and Practice" (1984), McGraw-Hill Company
- "“A User's Guide to State Revenue Forecasting", pp.79~94 (1990)