인구 감소와 보통교부세기준재정수요액의 관계 분석

Abstract

This study empirically analyzes the relationship between population changes in local governments and the amount of standard fiscal demand of local shared tax to understand how the population decline of a local government is reflected in the allocation of local shared tax. Panel data analyses for 15 years from 2008 to 2022 and cross-sectional data analyses for the last year of each regime during this period are performed. For panel data analysis, we adopt a robust fixed effect model, based upon analyses on the characteristics of the data. The main results are as follows. First, in all cases of panel analyses and cross- sectional analyses, population size shows a significant positive relationship with each of basic demands, adjusted demands, and standard fiscal demands. Furthermore, in all analyses, the magnitude of population change has a significant negative relationship with basic demands and standard fiscal demands. But while adjusted demands show a significant negative relationship with population changes in panel analysis, in cross-sectional analysis, it has a significant negative relationship only in 2022 when additional adjustment for population declining areas were newly introduced. The results implies that the local shared tax has granted more to population-decreasing areas if other conditions are the same through reflecting more amounts of the standard fiscal demand calculation for them. Therefore, it is crucial to develop comprehensive government policies for population declining areas, taking into account the reality that the current local shared tax has been allocated in favor of these areas.