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아프가니스탄의 정치군사적 현황과 전망 - 3중의 갈등구조 -

Afghanistan in the Three-layered War - The Present and Prospect -

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초록

현재 아프가니스탄에서 전개되고 있는 폭력과 갈등은 한 세기 전 영국 제국주의 개입의 유산, 1970년대 소련의 침공 그리고 2001년 시작된 미국의 아프가니스탄 전쟁이 초래한 갈등들이 얽혀 중층의 구조를 이루고 있다. 1970년대 아프가니스탄의 공산주의자들이 급진적으로 추진한 근대화 정책과 소련의 개입이 초래한‘내전 또는 통합을 위한 갈등’, 아프가니스탄의 영속지배를 포기한 영국이 남아시아의 식민지에서 물러나면서 그어놓은 불분명한 국경선과 미국이 탈레반을 축출하면서 산출된 갈등 즉 아프가니스탄-탈레반(파슈툰)-파키스탄의 지역전쟁 그리고 미국을 중심으로 한 나토연합군이 수행 중인 ‘세계전쟁’이 그것이다. 이 세가지 갈등은 서로 긴밀하게 연결되어 있어, 아프가니스탄 전쟁의 미래를 가늠할수 없는 요인으로 작용하고 있다. 이렇게 복잡한 ‘아프가니스탄 문제’를 해결하기위해서는 장기적인 관점에서 포괄적인 접근을 해야 할 것이다.

Abstract

The violent conflict deployed in present Afghanistan has multi-layered structure interlaced with legacies of American invasion in 2001, the Soviet invasion in 1970s, and the British interference a century ago. The first one is the civil war, which was resulted by the Afghan communists and USSR’s intervention in 1970s. The second part is the ambiguous borderline set up by the Great Britain in the early 20th century. The last one is the structure of conflict, ‘World War’, resulted as the US with NATO allies is conducting. These conflicts are tightly interlinked with each other, which became the obstacle for predicting the future of Afghanistan war. To resolve this ‘Afghanistan problem’ which various political forces are intricately complicated and struggling, it is needed to take comprehensive approach from the long-term viewpoint.

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