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토지이용변화에 따른 미계측 유역의 기저유출량 산정 및 평가

Estimation and assessment of baseflow at an ungauged watershed according to landuse change

정영훈|김형수|신용철|박윤식|임경재|금동혁|이승오|이지민
한국습지학회 (Korean Wetlands Society)|2014.11|한국습지학회지 (Journal of Wetlands Researh)|제16권 제4호|pp. 303-318

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참고문헌

키워드

토지이용변화감수부BaseflowUngauged watershedRecession미계측 유역Land use change기저유출
주제분류기타자연과학

초록

기후변화와 도시화는 기저유출이 하천유량에 미치는 계절별 특성에 변동성을 초래한다. 이러한 기저유출의 변동성은 수생태의 혼란을 유발할 뿐만 아니라 불안정한 수자원 관리를 초래할 수 있다. 토지이용변화는 직접유출과 기저유출에 영향을 주며, 결과적으로 다른 수문순환 요소들에게 미치게 된다. 일반적으로 기저유출은 관측된 하천유량을 통해 산정되지만, 모델링의 유량 예측을 통해서 미계측 유역의 기저유출량 산정에 유용하게 사용 될 수 있다. 따라서, 본 연구의 목적은 1) RECESS 통해 alpha factor를 산정한 후, SWAT 모형에 적용하여 보정 예측을 향상시키고, WHAT 시스템을 미계측유역의 적용하여 기저유출을 분석하며, 3) 토지이용변화에 따른 기저유출 특성을 평가하는 것이다. 이러한 목적으로 미계측 지역인 갑천 유역에 Period 1(1990-1996)과 Period 2(2000-2006)로 설정하여 적용하였다. RECESS를 통해 alpha factor를산정한 후, SWAT 모형 보정에 적용한 결과는 유량예측의 정확성을 향상시키고, 기저유출의 특성인 감수부분도 반영되었다. 두기간 사이의 연평균 기저유출을 비교했을 때 토지이용변화는 연평균 기저유출량에 큰 영향을 미치지 않는 것으로나타났다. 그러나 두기간 사이의 계절별 기저유출의 분포를 비교했을 때 토지이용변화는 기저유출의 계절별 특성에서 큰상이성을 초래했다. 따라서 토지이용변화로 인한 갑천 유역의 유량 및 기저유출의 변동성은 금강 본류로 전달되기 때문에 계절별 변화에 따라 전략적으로 분석 및 관리가 필요하다.

Abstract

Baseflow gives a significant contribution to stream function in the regions where climatic characteristics are seasonallydistinct. In this regard, variable baseflow can make it difficult to maintain a stable water supply, as well as causingdisruption to the stream ecosystem. Changes in land use can affect both the direct flow and baseflow of a stream, andconsequently, most other components of the hydrologic cycle. Baseflow estimation depends on the observed streamflow ingauge watersheds, but accurate predictions of streamflow through modeling can be useful in determining baseflow data forungauged watersheds. Accordingly, the objectives of this study are to 1) improve predictions of SWAT by applying thealpha factor estimated using RECESS for calibration; 2) estimate baseflow in an ungauged watershed using the WHATsystem; and 3) evaluate the effects of changes in land use on baseflow characteristics. These objectives were implementedin the Gapcheon watershed, as an ungauged watershed in South Korea. The results show that the alpha factor estimatedusing RECESS in SWAT calibration improves the prediction for streamflow, and, in particular, recessions in the baseflow. Also, the changes in land use in the Gapcheon watershed leads to no significant difference in annual baseflow betweencomparable periods, regardless of precipitation, but does lead to differences in the seasonal characteristics observed for thetemporal distribution of baseflow. Therefore, the Guem River, into which the stream from the Gapcheon watershed flows,requires strategic seasonal variability predictions of baseflow due to changes in land use within the region.

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