경찰력과 범죄의 관계에 대한 실증연구
Empirical Study for the Association between Police Forces and Crime
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초록
이 연구의 목적은 경찰력과 범죄의 관계를 통계적으로 검증하는 것이다. 연구에 사용된 자료는 국가통계포털에 공개된 시,군,구에 대한 센서스자료와 전국 241개 경찰서에 정보공개신청을 통해 획득한 경찰자료이다. 이 연구의 주요한 변수인 경찰력은 인구 1000명당 경찰관의 수, 인구 1000명당 경찰 순찰차의 수, 인구 1000명당 경찰서의 지구대, 치안센터, 및 파출소의 수, 그리고 경찰의 5대 범죄사건 검거율로 측정되었고 종속변수는 인구 1000명당 5대 범죄발생건수가 사용되었다. 통계적인 검증을 위해 분산분석, 상관관계, 및 다중회귀분석을 사용하였고 지역변수를 통제하여 경찰력의 영향력을 보다 분명히 파악하고자 하였다. 통계분석 결과 경찰서의 급수가 낮을수록(예, 3급서) 경찰의 범죄사건 해결율이 높았고 경찰인력, 장비, 및 시설의 효용성이 높았으며 인구 1000명당 5대 범죄발생건수가 낮았다. 경찰의 5대 범죄사건 검거율은 경찰의 인력, 장비, 그리고 시설과 정정인 상관관계를 나타냈으며 인구 1000명당 5대 범죄발생을 억제하는 것으로 나타났다. 한편, 경찰의 인력은 5대 범죄사건 검거율 및 5대 범죄사건발생과는 통계적으로 무의미한 관계였다. 경찰 순찰차의 수는 5대 범죄에 직접적으로 억제함과 동시에 경찰의 범죄사건 해결율을 높여 간접적으로도 5대 범죄발생을 억제하는 것으로 나타났다. 경찰관련 변수 중 경찰관서의 수는 인지 된 범죄사건을 증가시키는 것으로 나타나 그 해석상의 주의가 요구된다. 마지막으로 지역변수 중 당해 연도 이혼자의 수와 통근통학자의 수가 범죄발생과 관련성을 나타내었으나 지방자치단체의 제정자립도와 기초생활수급자의 수는 범죄발생에 영향력이 없는 것으로 나타났다. 이 연구의 의의는 경찰력과 범죄의 관계를 전국 단위로 조사한 연구이며 종단적인 공식통계자료의 사용에 있다.
Abstract
The purpose of this study is to examine the relationship between police forces and crime. The data used in this study have gained from National Statistics Portal providing County Level Census Data and from individual police stations in South Korea of which the number was 241. Primary variables in this study were police forces which were measured by the number of police officers per 1000 citizens, the number of police motor vehicles per 1000 citizens, the number of police mini-stations per 1000 citizens, and arrest rates, while the dependent variable was measured by the number of occurrences of index crimes (e.g. including murder, rape, robbery, larceny, and assault) per 1000 citizens. Statistical Techniques used in this study were ANOVA, Correlation, and Multiple Regression. In order to clarify the effects of police forces on crime, community variables were controlled. The results revealed that the size of police stations determines police forces and crime. For example, the small police station are more likely to have high clearance rates and high capacity of police personnel, goods, and facilities as well as lower occurrence of index crimes per 1000 citizens. Police arrest rates for index crimes had positive associations with police goods and facilities and deter the frequency of index crimes. The number of police officers did not have direct effects on the occurrence of crime whereas the number of police patrol vehicles had negative associations with index crimes. Among police related variables, the number of police facilities increased the number of reported crime. This result requires careful interpretation. At last, the number of divorce and the number of people commuting to job and school were related to the frequency of index crimes while the financial independence of local government and the number of people rested on social welfare did not have an influence on crime. The importance of this study is a nationwide research testing the relationship between police forces and crime and also this study attempted to test causal links between crime and police forces by using longitudinal data.
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