일대일로 전략의 전망과 한국의 물류분야 대응방안 - 글로벌 가치사슬 관점 -

Abstract

In March 2015, when a more sophisticated action plan for its implementation was announced, the “One Belt-One Road”(OBOR) initiative has been drawing attentions locally and from abroad in the context of international economic integration across Eurasia and its geopolitical environment. As already well known, the OBOR initiative is a grand strategy proposed by the People’s Republic of China(PRC), which consists of two pivotal components: building of the Silk Road Belt and that of the 21st Century Maritime Silk Road. The OBOR initiative is largely understood as the PRC’s ambitious international proposal for developing six economic corridors across the Eurasian continent, which includes 26 countries, accounting for about 68% of the world population, 29% of the world’s total GDP, and 23.9% of the world’s total trade, mainly by constructing transport/logistics infrastructures, industrial complexes, and improving their intra- and inter-regional connectivities. Departing from this existing approach, this study attempts to understand the OBOR as a China-centered movement for reshaping the global value chains(GVCs) coupled with the “Made in China 2025,” another ambitious long-term plan for innovating China’s manufacturing capabilities and international competitiveness. In the study, the GVCs are considered a key background concept that can explain correlation between the recent shift of China’s Foreign Direct Investment patterns and the construction of the OBOR. The study aims to predict the future course of expansion of the international production networks, which will be initiated by PRC, and is expected to be accelerated by the OBOR, while searching for South Korea’s future course and its reactions as a global logistics player. By doing so, the study proposes four strategic options including leading, bandwagoning, balancing, and strategic hedging, which can be selectively adopted or flexibly blended according to the respective geopolitical environments of the six economic corridors embedded in the OBOR. As a possible strategic option toward the China proper (or Chinese mainland), which may be considered the conceptional gateway and international hub of the OBOR, the study recommends the bandwagoning to South Korea, which means matching China’s national plans relating to logistics development as well as production networks, paying sharp attentions on moving of China’s development strategies including the “Go West” strategy. On the other hand, regarding a possible option toward China-Mongolia-Russia Economic Corridor(CMREC), the study put an emphasis on the necessity of choosing leading option despite of uncertainty of inter-Korean relationship. In conclusion, the study put an emphasis on keeping a balance in South Korea’s policy stance toward the OBOR, re-estimating the importance and the potential of southern maritime economic corridors in terms of the consolidation of South Korea’s own GVCs and acceleration of going abroad policy in logistics businesses.