COVID-19 상황을 고려한 Shanghai Containerized Freight Index 예측
Shanghai Containerized Freight Index prediction considering the COVID-19
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초록
본 연구는 COVID-19 상황을 고려한 컨테이너 운임예측(SCFI)을 연구의 목적으로 한다. SCFI 예측을 위해 System dynamics를 활용했다. 활용된 변수는 SCFI, 중국의 컨테이너 수출물동량, 전 세계 선박 공급량, 글로벌 선사의 정시성이다. 분석 결과, SCFI에 물동량과 컨테이너 공급량이 미치는 영향이 COVID-19 전과 후가 다른 것으로 분석되었다. COVID-19 전후의 물동량이 SCFI에 미치는 영향 정도는 각각 0.281123, 1.12893으로 분석되었다. COVID-19 전후의 컨테이너 선박 공급량이 SCFI 미치는 영향 정도는 각각 1.16042, 2.97813으로 분석되어, COVID-19 기간에 컨테이너 선박의 공급량이 SCFI 미치는 영향이 증가한 것으로 분석되었다. COVID-19 회복 후에 글로벌 선사의 정시성 회복으로 컨테이너 운임은 감소하는 것으로 나타났으며, 2023년에 최저점을 기록하지만, 예전 수준의 운임하락은 없는 것으로 분석되었다.
Abstract
The purpose of this study is to predict container freight rates, considering COVID-19 situation. This paper utilized SCFI for container freight rates and employed System dynamics in order to predict. SCFI, China's container trade volumes, and global ship supply were used as variables. In addition, global schedule reliability was used to reflect the COVID-19 situation. It was discovered that effects of trade volume and container supply on SCFI were different before and after COVID-19. The trade volume affected on SCFI by 0.281123 before COVID-19, while affected on SCFI by 1.12893 after COVID-19 respectively. Meanwhile, container ship supply was analyzed to influence 1.12893 and 2.97813, before and after COVID-19 and it was shown that the effect of container ship supply on SCFI increased after COVID-19. Furthermore, it was predicted that container freight rates would decrease as global schedule reliability recovers along with COVID-19 recovery.
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