China Containerized Freight Index가 컨테이너 선가에 영향을 미치는 시차 분석
Time lag Effect Analysis of China Containerized Freight Index on Container ship Price
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초록
본 연구는 해운 운임이 컨테이너 선가에 영향을 미치는 시차를 분석하는 것을 목적으로 한다. 이를 위해 해운 운임으로는 CCFI(China Containerized Freight Index)를 활용했다. CCFI가 컨테이너 선가에 미치는 영향을 분석하기 위해 System dynamics를 활용했다. 활용된 변수는 CCFI, 컨테이너 신조선가 지수, 컨테이너 중고선가 지수, 중국의 컨테이너 물동량, 사이즈별 컨테이너 선대, 대형선박 비율이다. 분석결과, CCFI가 신조선가와 중고선가에 미치는 영향은 각 각 0.390246과 1.00735로 분석되었다. 해운 운임이 신조선가와 중고선가에 미치는 시차는 각 각 5개월, 1개월로 분석되었다. 모델 검증결과 시뮬레이션 모델의 신조선가와 중고선가의 RMSE는 각 각 1.424, 1.543으로 분석되었으며, Holt-winters 계절성 모형의 신조선가와 중고선가의 RMSE는 각 각 2.181과 1.738로 분석되어 시뮬레이션 모델의 정확도가 높은 것으로 나타났다.
Abstract
The purpose of this study is to analyze the time lag effect between shipping freight and container ship price. China Containerized Freight Index (CCFI) was employed for freight rates, while System dynamics was used to examine the impact of CCFI on container ship price. CCFI, new building price index, second hand price index, Chinese container trade volume, container ship fleet development, and large ship ratio were variables utilized in this study. It was found that the impact of CCFI on new building and secondary ship price was 0.390246 and 1.00735 respectively. The time lag effect between the new building ship price and shipping freight was five month, while that of the secondary ship price and shipping freight was one month only. Our modelling verified that new building ship price and secondary ship price had RMSE of 1.424 and 1.543 each Besides, Holt-winters seasonal model had RMSE of 2.181 and 1.738 for new building ship price and secondary price respectively, which is told to have high accuracy of the simulation model.
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