그랜저 인과관계를 활용한 세계 주요 선사의 선박발주량과 해운운임과의 상관관계에 관한 연구
The Study on Correlation between the Shipbuilding Order Quantity of Major Shipping Liners and Maritime Freight Rates: Using Granger Causality Analysis
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초록
본 연구는 세계 상위 10대 정기 컨테이너 선사와 한국의 한진해운, 현대상선의 신조발주 전략과 해운운임과의 상관관계를 분석하여 해운 선사별 투자유형을 구분하는 것을 연구의 목적으로 하였다. 분석에 사용된 변수는 세계 10대 정기 컨테이너 선사와 한진 해운, 현대 상선의 2005년부터 2014년까지의 선박발주량(TEU)이며, 해운운임은 BDI, CCFI, HRCI를 사용하였다. 그랜저 인과관계와 충격반응함수를 적용한 결과 해운선사별 선박투자유형은 다음과 같이 구분할 수 있는 것으로 분석되었다. ‘시황흐름 무관 선박투자’형의 Maersk, “시황상승기 이전 선박투자” 형의 China Shipping, COSCO, OOCL, ‘과다발주에 동참 후 시황하락’형의 MSC, CMA-CGM, APL, UASC, Hapag-Lloyd, OOCL, Hanjin Shipping, Hyundai M.M, “시황상승기 선박투자 회피” 형의 MSC, CMA-CGM, Evergreen, APL이다.
Abstract
This study aimed to analyze the correlation between the shipbuilding order strategies of the top 10 global regular-container shipping companies, Hanjin shipping, Hyundai M.M and shipping charges. While Maersk, the global leading container shipping company, places shipbuilding orders before a rise in market conditions, most Asian shipping companies place shipbuilding orders when market conditions are at a peak, thus worsening business difficulties during an extended recession in the shipping industry. Based on these analysis results, the ship investment types of shipping companies were analyzed as well. The data used in this study included the ship order quantities of Hanjin Shipping, Hyundai Mrechant Shipping and global top 10 container shipping companies, as well as BDI, CCFI, HRCI. The data of the Alphaliner’s report were used for the shipbuilding order quantities of these companies while the data for CCFI, BDI, and HRCI were obtained from the Korea Maritime Institute. For the period between 2005 and 2014, every three to five months of collected data had been used, in conjunction with Granger casuality test, to analyze the correlation between shipbuilding oreder quantities and maritime freight rates. The ship investment types of shipping companies were classified through the Granger causality analysis and the impulse response function as follows. The shipping companies that did not exchange influence with any shipping charge were Maersk. This group is the 'ship investment irrelevant to market trend' type who makes ship investments based on business judgment that is different from the market trend. The group whose ship order quantity has a positive influence on the shipping charge indicates that they order ships before a rise of shipping charge, which can be called the 'ship investment before market rise' type. The analysis results of this study showed that this group of the 'ship investment before market rise' type included China Shipping, COSCO and OOCL. The group whose ship order quantity had a negative influence on shipping charge included MSC, CMA-CGM, APL, UASC, Hapag-Lloyd, Hyundai, and Hanjin. This group can be called the 'market decline after participation in excessive orders' type, meaning that they invested in ships trusting the current market condition, but the shipping charge decreased after the investment. The shipping companies whose ship order was positively influenced by shipping charge did not exist. This group can be called the 'market-following ship investment' type, meaning that they increased ship orders when the shipping charge was high. The group whose ship order was negatively influenced by shipping charge can be called the 'avoidance of ship investment during market rise' type, meaning that they reduced ship orders when the shipping charge was high. The results of this study showed that such group included MSC, CMA-CGM, Evergreen and APL.
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