해운기업의 경영안정성과 충격반응 분석에 관한 연구

Abstract

The shipping industry suffered an important shock due to the merger of two prominent shipping lines, COSCO and China Shipping, in December 2015. It is important to prepare the exit strategy for the domestic shipping lines, Hajin Shipping (HIS) and Hyundai Merchant Marine (HMM), as the Korean financial authorities proposed the merger of HIS and HMM. As the shipping industry is a cycle industry, it is well known that the end of the depression should result in a boom for the industry. During a situation of balance between vessel supply and demand, the cargo volume positively affects the shipping rate; otherwise, the used vessels’ price would be higher. The number of used vessels and newly built ones affects vessel oversupply, causing the shipping rate to be lower. In 2006, the shipping industry had undergone a large economic boom influenced by the Chinese special procurement demand and the global economic situation. As such, the Baltic Dry Index had increased from 773P on January 3, 2009, to 4,482P in November2009, and, subsequently, decreased to 1,594P in 2011. Due to the shipping recession triggered by the global financial crisis, most international and domestic shipping lines underwent severe liquidity risks, affecting the lines having stable profits, such as Korealines, STX-Pan Ocean, etc. During the recession, the future of the domestic lines was uncertain, because the lines’ profits depend more on sea transport. In the profit structure, heavily dependent on transportation, as the ships sail more, the company incurs losses. There are several studies regarding the risk management of shipping lines. For example, Yoo (2008) researches risk management due to changing shipping rates. Na et al. (2015) weigh the priority factors, such as the market, operational, and financial perspectives, using an analytical hierarchy process (AHP) model. Using shock-resilience (S-R), Hwang et al. (2012) compare the performance of Korean and Japanese lines before and at the end of the recession. However, there is limited quantitative research on this matter. Therefore, this study generates a stability index for the lines and adopts an impulse response function to trace changes due to typical shipping indices, BDI, China Container Freight Index (CCFI), and the Howe Robinson Container Index (HRCI) during 11 years. As a result, the stability index would be higher or lower due to BDI, CCFI, and HRCI. Subsequently, the impulse of BDI is relatively smaller than the one of CCFI or HRCI. This study is similar to Kim (2014) and Kim et al. (2010), as it analyzes stability, profitability, productivity, growth, and change of the shipping lines’ financial status. However, this study creates the stability index and analyzes ten Korean domestic lines, thus differing from previous studies. Additionally, it is academically meaningful in regard to tracing the impulses of changing representative shipping indices. Nonetheless, this study has limitations, such as analyzing only domestic lines.