환율변동이 우리나라 외항선사의 수익성에 미치는 영향에 관한 연구

Abstract

This study investigates the impact of exchange rates fluctuation on Korean ocean-going shipping firm's performance during the period of 2002~2013 through comparing pre-global financial crisis period(2002~2007) with post-global financial crisis period(2008~2013) using 55 firms. In order to examine the change of the operating income to sales of Korean ocean-going shipping companies according to exchange rates fluctuation, non-operating profit and loss were excluded in this study. Company's operating margin measured by the operating income to sales is used as a dependent variable and the exchange rate fluctuation is employed as a major independent variable. Utilizing panel data on Korean ocean-going shipping companies, the impact of exchange rates fluctuation on the profit of shipping companies will be empirically examined. The important results of this empirical analysis are as follows. First, this study reveals that the operation performances of Korean ocean-going shipping companies was improved according to the appreciation of Korean Won/US dollar exchange rates between 2002 and 2013 and during the post-global financial crisis period(2008~2013). These results were in line with the findings of several other studies regarding the manufacturing enterprises. Second, it is found that the findings during the pre-global financial crisis period(2002~2007) are different from the results of the whole period and post-global financial crisis period. That is, during the super-cycle period(2003~the first half of 2008), despite of the fall of Korean Won/US dollar exchange rates, operating margin of Korean ocean-going shipping companies was increased continuously. This different result could be explained by super-cycle in shipping industry to have shown the peak in the shipping business. Third, comparing to the period of post-global financial crisis, the whole period shows that significance level is lower and regression coefficient estimate of Won/US dollar exchange rate variable become smaller. This means that the impact of the exchange rate change on operating margin of Korean ocean-going shipping companies during the post-global financial crisis is greater than the whole period. This result could be explained because of the rapid increasing of the exchange rate since the second-half of 2008. That is, the exchange rate of Korean Won to US dollar was fallen continuously, however, since the global crisis of 2008, the greater changes of exchange rate would have an impact on the operating margin of Korean ocean-going shipping companies. Lastly, the coefficient of seaborne trade(SBT) which is one of the explanatory variables is found to be significant. This could be interpreted as a result that the company's profitability is improved by the increasing in SBT. Additionally, both tonnage(TON) and total debt/total asset(DEBT) are also significant with showing negative signs. This could be explained by the increasing in the SBT and DEBT to have made the profitability of the company decrease. However, during the pre-global financial crisis period, the coefficient of TON showed a positive sign. This might be explained that in spite of the increasing of the tonnage, the operating profit of the shipping companies has been increased consistently in this period.