해로드 불안정성에 대한 재고찰
A Reconstruction of Harrod’s Dynamic Instability
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초록
해로드는 적정성장경로가 동태적으로 불안정하다고 주장하였으며, 이는 신고전학파 성장이론과 포스트 케인지언 성장과 분배이론이 발전하는 계기가 되었다. 이들 논의는 적정성장률과 자연성장율 사이의 불일치 현상을 다룬 것이다. 반면 해로드 불안정성은 적정성장률과 실제성장률 사이의 괴리에서 비롯된다. 본 연구는 해로드가 불안정성 명제의 논리적 근거로서 제시한 논의들이 유의한 것인지를 검토할 것이다. 본 연구는 우선 해로드가 불안정성 명제를 구축하는 과정을 추적할 것이다. 그리고 해로드의 논의와 일치하는 불균형상태 투자함수를 도입하고 그 해를 구할 것이다. 본 연구에 의하면 해로드는 비교동학분석에 의하여 불안정성 명제를 도출하였으며, 이는 동학분석과 일치하지 않는다. 특히 투자함수가 적정자본스톡 조절과정을 반영하도록 구성되면, 동학경로는 Rose(1959)가 지적한 바와 같이 상대적 안정성을 보인다.
Abstract
Harrod’s equilibrium path, the so-called warranted growth path, is said dynamically unstable. The neoclassical or Post Keynesian arguments of Harrod’s instability were concerned with the inconsistency between a natural and a warranted growth rate. But Harrod’s knife-edge proposition proper is concerned with the relationship between an actual and a warranted growth rate. This paper pursues the process of how Harrod built the instability proposition. This paper also constructs a model consistent with Harrod’s arguments of investment in disequilibrium, and gets an explicit solution of actual growth path. It shows that Harrod’ investment function does not support his proposition of instability. The model of the latter argument is equivalent to Rose 1959 model. But Rose, not solving it explicitly, presented some obscure arguments.
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