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신용과 경제성장: 대안적 접근

Credit and Economic Growth: An Alternative View

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한국사회경제학회 (Korean Association for Political Economy)|2011.05|사회경제평론 (The Review of Social & Economic Studies)|제36호|pp. 7-48

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참고문헌

키워드

신용-경제성장의 관계비금융부문으로의 신용금융부문으로의 신용자금순환계정Credit-economic growth nexusCredit to the real sectorCredit to the financial sectorFlow of funds accounts
주제분류경제학

초록

이 논문은 신용과 경제성장의 관계를 분석하는 대안적 논의를 이론적,경험적 근거와 더불어 제시한다. 기존 연구들이 신용을 비금융부문으로 중개된 자금으로 협소하게 해석하고 금융부문 내에서 순환하는 신용에 독자적인 의미를 부여하지 않는 것과 달리, 이 연구는 두 부문의 신용이 서로질적으로 다르며 상이하게 기능함을 보인다. 마르크스의 이자낳는 자본과가공자본의 구분 그리고 케인스의 화폐 순환의 구분은 이를 분석할 수 있는 이론적 준거이다. 비금융부문으로의 신용은 경제성장과 유의미한 인과성을 갖는 반면, 금융부문으로의 신용은 비금융부문으로 흘러들어가기 이전의 중간 경로에 불과한 것이 아니라 금융부문 자체 내에서 순환하면서경제성장을 저해하거나 경제 구조를 취약하게 만들 수 있다. 이처럼 신용이 구성 요소에 따라 경제성장의 동력이자 동시에 성장을 저해하는 양가성을 갖는다는 점은 미국의 자금순환계정을 대상으로 벡터자기회귀모형(VAR)을 이용한 실증 결과로도 입증된다.

Abstract

Based on Marx’s argument of the distinction between “interesting-bearing capital and fictitious capital” and Keynes’s “differentiation of the industrial and financial circulation of money”, this paper proposes an alternative framework for analyzing the credit-economic growth nexus. Contrary to the previous literature which focuses only on credit aggregates to the real (non-financial) sector and thereby ignoring credit to the financial sector, we allow for each type of credit to have an own and qualitatively different role in economic growth. Credit to the real sector has a close positive relationship with economic growth, whereas credit to the financial sector can be detrimental to economic growth and increase economic vulnerability, rather than being just an intermediary channel towards the real sector. Finally, we also use U.S. flow of funds accounts as an illustration. Using VAR and VECM models, we show that credit becomes both a barrier and a boost to economic growth, according to its qualitative composition.

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