NORTH KOREA AND NUCLEAR DETERRENCE
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Contrary to the usual view, deterring a state like North Korea is not really more difficult if it has nuclear weapons. Preventing North Korea from deterring a government like the US, or a UN coalition, is also not more difficult if the North has nuclear weapons. It is very difficult to make a decision to use nuclear weapons. It is especially difficult if a government is devoted to its survival, will certainly cease to exist if it uses nuclear weapons (the reaction would be so extreme), and its opponents may not react so harshly if it decides not to use nuclear weapons. This is the situation the North will be in with a modest number of nuclear weapons. Thus those who pressure the North should stop short of threatening its existence. And the North should take seriously the current opportunity to negotiate a settlement of the Korean problem.
Abstract
Contrary to the usual view, deterring a state like North Korea is not really more difficult if it has nuclear weapons. Preventing North Korea from deterring a government like the US, or a UN coalition, is also not more difficult if the North has nuclear weapons. It is very difficult to make a decision to use nuclear weapons. It is especially difficult if a government is devoted to its survival, will certainly cease to exist if it uses nuclear weapons (the reaction would be so extreme), and its opponents may not react so harshly if it decides not to use nuclear weapons. This is the situation the North will be in with a modest number of nuclear weapons. Thus those who pressure the North should stop short of threatening its existence. And the North should take seriously the current opportunity to negotiate a settlement of the Korean problem.