Moscow Ponders Korea Unification
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Throughout the past decade, under both presidents Vladimir Putin and Dmitry Medvedev, the Russia’s government policy toward the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK) and the Republic of Korea (ROK) has remained remarkably consistent. Russia has adhered to several integrated key goals, strategies, and tactics in both the security and economic realms. Russian policy makers are eager to normalize the security situation on the Korean Peninsula. They do not want yet another nuclear-armed state bordering Russia, especially one armed with inaccurate missiles and an erratic dynastic dictatorship. In addition, they fear that the DPRK’s possession of nuclear-armed ballistic missiles could encourage still further nuclear proliferation in East Asia and beyond as well as the spread of missile defenses in response. Yet, Russia’s fundamental goals regarding the Koreas do not include reunification or a new form of government in North Korea. Russian officials seek to change Pyongyang’s behavior, not its regime. Korean unification could result in humanitarian emergencies, economic reconstruction burdens, arms races, loose nukes, and military clashes. Russians favor a “soft landing” for the North Korean regime—a gradual mellowing of its domestic and especially foreign policies, including the renunciation of nuclear weapons.
Abstract
Throughout the past decade, under both presidents Vladimir Putin and Dmitry Medvedev, the Russia’s government policy toward the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK) and the Republic of Korea (ROK) has remained remarkably consistent. Russia has adhered to several integrated key goals, strategies, and tactics in both the security and economic realms. Russian policy makers are eager to normalize the security situation on the Korean Peninsula. They do not want yet another nuclear-armed state bordering Russia, especially one armed with inaccurate missiles and an erratic dynastic dictatorship. In addition, they fear that the DPRK’s possession of nuclear-armed ballistic missiles could encourage still further nuclear proliferation in East Asia and beyond as well as the spread of missile defenses in response. Yet, Russia’s fundamental goals regarding the Koreas do not include reunification or a new form of government in North Korea. Russian officials seek to change Pyongyang’s behavior, not its regime. Korean unification could result in humanitarian emergencies, economic reconstruction burdens, arms races, loose nukes, and military clashes. Russians favor a “soft landing” for the North Korean regime—a gradual mellowing of its domestic and especially foreign policies, including the renunciation of nuclear weapons.
참고문헌 (46)
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