New Geo-economic Thinking on North Korea in Japan
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Japan’s North Korea policy is currently based on solid strategic calculation, and Tokyo will most likely adhere to the six-party talks process for the resolution of the nuclear, ballistic missile, and abduction issues. However, adherence to this policy is neither static nor permanent. Tokyo will be forced to reformulate a new approach if the talks process makes significant progress, or if the Pyongyang regime collapses abruptly, replaced by a new one satiated with the status quo that involves lowering the tensions centered on North Korea. This paper analyzes major factors pushing the Japanese government to their adoption of a geo-economic approach to North Korea, something which represents a major shift from the current thinking and policy approach. The Japanese public has recently been exposed to an alternative perspective, critical of U.S. North Korea policy, particularly in regard to the recent u-turn in policy toward appeasement and the growing skepticism of the U.S. allegation regarding Pyongyang’s counterfeiting activities. The Japanese public has also become gradually aware of growing U.S.-European competition in direct investment in North Korean underground resources and of the latent Japanese edge in that competition. This paper discusses the prospects for a geo-economic regional power game and an evolving Japanese geo-economic policy approach.
Abstract
Japan’s North Korea policy is currently based on solid strategic calculation, and Tokyo will most likely adhere to the six-party talks process for the resolution of the nuclear, ballistic missile, and abduction issues. However, adherence to this policy is neither static nor permanent. Tokyo will be forced to reformulate a new approach if the talks process makes significant progress, or if the Pyongyang regime collapses abruptly, replaced by a new one satiated with the status quo that involves lowering the tensions centered on North Korea. This paper analyzes major factors pushing the Japanese government to their adoption of a geo-economic approach to North Korea, something which represents a major shift from the current thinking and policy approach. The Japanese public has recently been exposed to an alternative perspective, critical of U.S. North Korea policy, particularly in regard to the recent u-turn in policy toward appeasement and the growing skepticism of the U.S. allegation regarding Pyongyang’s counterfeiting activities. The Japanese public has also become gradually aware of growing U.S.-European competition in direct investment in North Korean underground resources and of the latent Japanese edge in that competition. This paper discusses the prospects for a geo-economic regional power game and an evolving Japanese geo-economic policy approach.
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