Beijing’s Dilemma and Preference on the Korean Peninsula: Responses to the 2010 Korean Crises
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The ROK is a major contributing partner to China’s economic prosperity. The ROK is China’s third largest trading partner and the fourth largest investor. The total amount of trade with China, including Hong Kong, is bigger than the sum of the next nine trading partners’ all combined, including the United States and Japan, the second and third largest partners, respectively. However, despite the deep economic ties between the two countries, Seoul was frustrated with Beijing’s support for Pyongyang during the 2010 Korean crises. China faces a dilemma in the 2010 Korean crises in its efforts to maintain equidistant between Seoul and Pyongyang. However, Beijing is likely to lean toward Pyongyang because doing so will contribute to China’s inherent national goals: continue the CCP’s political rule, preserve national integrity, and strengthen its global power status. In addition, due to the 1961 Treaty of Friendship and Cooperation with Pyongyang, Beijing’s support for Pyongyang is likely to persist. However, there is a limit; Pyongyang should not step beyond Beijing’s level of tolerance. The degree of tolerance is the dilemma that Beijing faces, and at the moment, it prefers to maintain equidistant between Seoul and Pyongyang. However, if Pyongyang adopts a Chinese style of reform, the dilemma could disappear. Beijing should persuade Pyongyang to follow China’s reform and open policy. Whether this will succeed or not depends on the self confidence of Pyongyang’s inner circle in both the domestic and international environments.
Abstract
The ROK is a major contributing partner to China’s economic prosperity. The ROK is China’s third largest trading partner and the fourth largest investor. The total amount of trade with China, including Hong Kong, is bigger than the sum of the next nine trading partners’ all combined, including the United States and Japan, the second and third largest partners, respectively. However, despite the deep economic ties between the two countries, Seoul was frustrated with Beijing’s support for Pyongyang during the 2010 Korean crises. China faces a dilemma in the 2010 Korean crises in its efforts to maintain equidistant between Seoul and Pyongyang. However, Beijing is likely to lean toward Pyongyang because doing so will contribute to China’s inherent national goals: continue the CCP’s political rule, preserve national integrity, and strengthen its global power status. In addition, due to the 1961 Treaty of Friendship and Cooperation with Pyongyang, Beijing’s support for Pyongyang is likely to persist. However, there is a limit; Pyongyang should not step beyond Beijing’s level of tolerance. The degree of tolerance is the dilemma that Beijing faces, and at the moment, it prefers to maintain equidistant between Seoul and Pyongyang. However, if Pyongyang adopts a Chinese style of reform, the dilemma could disappear. Beijing should persuade Pyongyang to follow China’s reform and open policy. Whether this will succeed or not depends on the self confidence of Pyongyang’s inner circle in both the domestic and international environments.
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