민간투자사업 정량적 위험배분모형 구축과 국고보조금 산정

Abstract

This research has examined the allocation of risk in Korea's PPI(Private Provided Infrastructure) with the following contents: (1) Developing an quantitative risk allocation model for Korea's PPI. (2) Estimating Government Subsidies using the developed empirical model. The model of this research adopts and extends H. Yamaguchi's model (2002). (1) To investigate Korea's actual risk allocation deals, I incorporated the MRG (Minimum Revenue Guarantee) framework. The payment related to the MRG is indeterminable. Hence, I calculated the average MRG rate using probabilistic risk analysis. (2) To analyze and understand risk allocation in specific project types, a discount rate is incorporated into the previous model. Incorporating the discount rate, the model is made into 2-period model which makes it possible to take into account the SPC's (Special Purpose Company) interest. The discount rate is calculated using probabilistic risk analysis. To validate the model the developed risk allocation model is applied to the hypothetical project.