중소도시 개발제한구역의 해제가 식생상태에 미친 효과
The Effects of Greenbelt Release in Medium-sized Cities on Vegetation Conditions
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초록
본 논문은 2000년대 초 개발제한구역이 해제된 3개의 중소도시들을 대상으로 20년 가까운 시간이 흐른지금 과연 개발제한구역의 해제가 식생상태에 어떠한 영향을 미쳤는지 분석하는 데 목적이 있다. 본 논문에서는 이를 위하여 청주, 춘천, 진주 등 세 개의중소도시를 선정하여, 원격탐사기법으로 획득한 기준연도(2001년)와 비교연도(2017년)의 표준식생지수를 비교하고, 그 변화율을 종속변수로 하여 이중차분모형(Difference-in-difference Model)을 활용하되, 기본모형과 통제변수가 포함된 두 개의 모형으로 구분하여 추정하였다. 추정결과 세 도시 공통적으로 개발제한구역이 해제된 지역은 식생상태가 해제 전보다 악화된 것으로 나타났다. 이 결과는 개발제한구역이 환경적 가치를 갖고 있음을 방증한다. 식생지수를 악화시키는 요인은 인구수, 토지가격 등 개발과 관련된변수들로 나타나 개발 규제의 완화로 인해 진행된 개발 행위라는 결론을 얻었다.
Abstract
This study intends to analyze the effects of greenbelt release on vegetation conditions in the case of the three medium-sized cities in Korea. For this purpose, two types of the difference-in-difference models are performed to estimate the determinants of the NDVI (normalized difference vegetation index) by utilizing the panel data of the study areas which includes both attribute data such as population and land price, and spatial data such as distance to the city center. The findings of this study indicate that the release of the greenbelt restriction made the vegetation condition worse off in all three medium-sized cities. This reflects that the greenbelt functions as a green area reservoir, and proves that the greenbelt restriction is an effective tool to control land development.
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