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기업의 정치적 관계가 해외 인수합병의 공시효과에 미치는 영향: 중국 기업을 대상으로

The Firms’ Political Connections and Announcement Effect of Cross-Border M&A: Evidence from China

권택호|유신양
한국재무관리학회 (Korea Financial Management Association)|2022.02|재무관리연구 (THE KOREAN JOURNAL OF FINANCIAL MANAGEMENT)|제39권 제1호|pp. 23-61|DOI 10.22510/kjofm.2022.39.1.002

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참고문헌

키워드

Ownership공시효과Announcement Effect정치적 관계Government Subsidy해외 인수합병정부 지원금기업 소유권Cross-Border M&APolitical Connection
주제분류경영학

초록

정치적 관계(Political connection)는 기업과 정부 간 관계의 밀접한 정도를 의미한다. 특히 중국을 비롯한 신흥국가에서는 많은 경우 정부가 자원 배분에 권한을 갖고 있기 때문에 기업의 우호적인 정치적 관계는 기업 경영에 긍정적 영향을 줄 수 있다. 그러나 기업과 정부 간의 이해가 일치하지 않는 경우 기업은 자신의 이익보다 정부의 이해를 우선시하는 결정을 통해 정부 관계를 정립하거나 유지할 가능성도 있다. 이 연구는 2009년부터 2019년까지 중국 상장기업이 공시한 해외 M&A 사건을 대상으로 기업 임원의 정치적 신분으로 측정한 정치적 관계가 공시전후의 주가 반응에 미치는 영향을 분석하였다. 분석 결과, 평균적으로는 정치적 관계가 강할수록 해외 M&A에 대한 시장의 평가가 낮은 것으로 나타났다. 즉, 기업의 정치적 관계가 높아지면 해외 M&A에 대한 잠재적인 정치비용 등 문제에 대한 시장의 우려가 커지는 것으로 해석할 수 있다. 그러나 표본을 국영기업과 민영기업으로 구분하는 경우 정치적 관계가 M&A 공시효과에 미치는 부정적인 영향은 민영기업 표본에서만 유의하게 나타났다. 한편, 국영기업 표본에서는 정치적 관계와 M&A 공시효과 사이에 U자형 관계를 확인할 수 있었다. 이는 국영기업 특히, 중앙기업의 태생적 정치적 관계는 기업의 해외 M&A를 단순한 기업 행위가 아닌 국가 행위로 간주할 수 있는 측면이 있음을 반영하는 것으로, 국영기업의 경우 정부의 광범위한 지원이 있을 수 있음을 보여주는 결과이다. 또한, 정치적 관계가 정부 보조금 및 기업의 정보 투명도가 해외 M&A 공시효과에 미치는 긍정적 영향을 약화시킴을 확인하였다. 이 연구는 중국 상장기업들의 정치적 관계가 해외투자에서 잘못된 결정을 초래할 수 있음을 보여주고 있으며 특히, 민영기업의 경우 높은 정치적 관계가 기업가치를 떨어뜨릴 가능성이 있다는 것을 보여준다. 이러한 결과는 기업인들이 정치적 관계를 설정할 때 합리적인 판단을 할 필요가 있음을 시사한다.

Abstract

A political connection indicates a close relationship between firms and the government. Especially in emerging countries such as China, where the government holds great power in resource allocation, friendly political connections can bring a lot of development advantages to firms. But due to conflicts of interest between firms and the government, firms may sacrifice their own interests to meet the requirements of the government to establish or maintain the political connection. As an important form of overseas direct investment, cross-border M&A is more closely related to the government. This paper takes cross-border M&A cases of listed Chinese companies published from 2009 to 2019 as samples to explore the impact of the political connection on the performance of cross-border M&A. The results show that in the overall sample, the stronger the political connection of the firm, the lower the market's evaluation of the cross-border M&A of the firm. This is consistent with the results of most existing studies. That is to say that with the enhancement of firm political connections, investors are more concerned about the hidden political expenses of cross-border M&A. However, after the samples were divided into state-owned and non-state-owned, the negative impact of political connections on cross-border M&A is only significant in the non-state-owned firms sample group. In the state-owned firm group, a "U" shaped relationship was found between political connections and M&A performance. This may be due to the inherent political connection of state-owned firms, which makes the cross-border M&A of firms be regarded as not only corporate behavior but also state behavior in the eyes of investors. This also means that state-owned firms are backed by resources and policies from the central government that non-state-owned firms can only hope to be the beneficiaries of but can't get. In addition, this study also finds that political connections have the effect of weakening the positive impact of government subsidies and firm's information transparency in cross-border M&A. The study shows that the political connection of Chinese firms may lead to the wrong decision of overseas investment, especially for private enterprises with strong of a relationship with the government; this may damage the value of firms. This implies that entrepreneurs should focus on corporate interests and rationally treat the political connection.

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