캄보디아, 라오스, 미얀마: 새로운 지역성장 동력으로서 전망과 한계
Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar: The Prospects and Limits as a New Regional Growth Engine
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초록
지난 10여 년 동안 캄보디아, 라오스, 미얀마 등 인도차이나 최빈 개도국(LDCs)들이 높은 경제성장을 시현해 오면서 사계에서 이들 경제의 미래에 대한 관심이 고조되고 있다. 이와 관련하여 주요 국제경제 관련 기구들은 이들이 현재와 같은 성장 속도를 유지할 경우 머잖은 장래에 중위권 소득국가로 진입하게 될 것이라는 전망들을 제시해 왔다. 그리고 이들 3국이 근래 수년 간 보여온 정치, 경제적 변화와 개혁 의지는 그러한 전망의 개연성을 높이고 있다. 이들 국가는 오늘날 글로벌 생산 네트워크에 자국 경제를 통합시키려는 보다 적극적인 시도와 함께 비교우위 부문들을 중심으로 개발 우선순위를 설정하고, 성장을 촉진할 수 있는 환경과 조건을 조성하는 방향으로 정책의 역점을 두고 있다. 이에 이 글은 이들 3국 경제가 성장을 위해 노력해 온 과정에서 채택해 온 개발전략의 특성과 성과를 고찰하고, 이로부터 성장 전망에 영향을 미치는 요인들을 분석하고 있다. 여기서 필자는 이들 경제가 향후 지속가능한 성장궤도로 진입할 수 있을지 여부를 판단하는데 있어 지역경제통합, 소지역 협력계획, 대미관계 개선 등을 기회요인으로, 인프라와 인적자원 부족, 투자유인 미흡 등을 도전요인으로 지적하고 있다.
Abstract
As Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar, the Least Developed Countries (LDCs) in Indochina, have showed high economic performances during last decade, attentions have increased about the future of their economies. Hereupon, several international economic organizations have suggested prospects that they would enter the status of middle-income economies in the near future in case they keep up current growth speed. Actually their political and economic changes and active will for reform shown during last several years raise the probability of such prospects. These countries, with extensive attempts to integrate their economics into global production networks, nowadays set up their strategic priorities for development on the sectors of comparative advantages and place the foci of policies on the direction of creating favorable circumstances and conditions for facilitate the growth. This paper hence examines the characteristics and outcomes of development strategies they have adopted during their efforts for growth, and analyzes the factors which will have effects on them with reference to growth prospects. Here the writer points out things like regional economic integration, subregional cooperation initiatives, and improving relations with U.S. as opportunity factors, and ones like lack of infra-structure and human resources, and insufficient incentives for investments as challenge factors in deciding whether they can forward enter the sustainable development trajectories.
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