오바마 행정부와 북핵 해결의 전망
The Obama Administration and the Prospects for the Resolution of North Korea’s Nuclear Problem
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오바마 행정부는 대내외적으로 많은 도전에 직면해 있다. 국내에서는 경제 침체의 늪에서 벗어나야 하고 대외적으로는 대량살상무기의 확산, 이라크와 아프가니스탄 전쟁, 국제 테러리즘의 위협에서 아직 탈피하지 못했으며, 이란은 새로운 위협으로 떠오르고 있다. 미국에게 북한은 여러 가지 측면에서 도전을 제기하는 불량국가로서 특히 핵무기 확산과 개발에서 그러하다. 그렇지만 오바마 행정부가 북한 핵 문제를 해결할 가능성은 현재로서는 적어 보인다. 워싱턴은 다자 및 양자 대화, 유엔 안보리 제재를 포함하는 다양한 방법으로 해결책을 모색하지만, 평양이 워싱턴의 의지를 수용할 가능성은 매우낮다. 이것은 이미 북한이 핵무기를 개발하여 최소한의 억지력을 확보했고, 더 중요하게, 떠오르는 동맹국인 중국의 외교, 군사적 보호를받고 있기 때문이다. 결국, 시간이 가면서 한국, 미국, 일본을 비롯한자유세계는 군사 제재를 포함하는 어려운 선택을 해야 할 시기에 이르고 그 이전까지 북한의 핵능력은 더욱 증대할 것이다.
Abstract
The Obama administration faces enormous challenges from within and without. Inside the country, it has yet to escape the morass of economic depression, and outside it has to subdue the dangers of international terrorism, proliferation of weapons of mass destruction, and the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan. North Korea, located in a remote corner of Northeast Asia, also poses a grave threat toward the U.S., especially in terms of its development of nuclear weapons. But the chances for the Obama administration to successfully resolve the North Korean nuclear dilemma seem very slim. Washington tries to mobilize all possible means including multilateral and bilateral dialogues and the sanctions by the UN Security Council, but the probability seems very low for Pyongyang to bend to Washington’s will. This is because the North has already secured a minimum level of military deterrence vis-à-vis the U.S. and, more importantly, receives strong diplomatic and military protection from its neighboring ally, the globally rising China. As long as the liberal democracies do not come up with genuinely strong measures that could invoke the fear of military clash, the North will continue to aggrandize its nuclear capabilities.
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