경제위기에 대응하기 위한 정부지출 결정요인
A Study on the Determinants of Government Expenditure Responding to Economic Crisis
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2007년 미국발 서브프라임 사태로 시작된 글로벌 경제위기에 대응하기 위하여 각국 정부는 상이한 규모의 감세, 다양한 분야의 지출확대 그리고 이들을 조합한 성장촉진패키지(stimulus package)를 사용하였다. 이 연구는 경제위기에 대응하는 정부지출을 결정하는 요인이 무엇인지를 실증적으로 고찰하는 데 목적이 있다. 분석에 따르면, GDP 성장률이 높을수록(경제위기 정도가 약한 국가일수록) 경제위기에 대응하는 정부지출은 감소하는 것으로 나타났다. 이는 경제위기 당시 큰 타격을 받아 GDP 성장률이 크게 낮아진 국가일수록 이에 대응하는 정부지출을 늘린 것으로 해석될 수 있다. 한편, 재정여력을 대리하는 변수인 정부부채비율이나 일인당 GDP의 경우 종속변수와 유의한 상관관계를 보이지 않았다. 이것은 경제위기에 직면한 국가의 재정 여력(fiscal space)이 정부지출에 영향을 미친다는 기존의 연구와는 상반된 결과이다.
Abstract
Even if the debates on the government expenditure have attracted attention from academia for a long time, there still remain dissents about the determinants of government expenditure responding to economic crisis. This study aims to show empirically what determines government expenditure to alleviate economic crisis. The main results suggest that GDP growth rates and the size of government responses are negatively associated. Contrary to previous studies, fiscal space variables do not seem to affect the size of government responses.
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