세법개정이 유발하는 정책효과들에 대한 정부와 국회의 기여도 분석: 2014년 「소득세법」 개정을 중심으로

Abstract

The 2014 income tax amendment proposal of South Korean government underwent many revisions by the National Assembly. The present paper studies the policy effects induced by the 2014 income tax amendment process, and decomposes the total effects into three parts: (1) those due to income growth, (2) those due to the government’s original proposal, and (3) those due to the National Assembly’s revisions. We use both the Annual Statistics of Nation Tax Revenue and the actual tax payment data where tax payers are divided into 1000 groups, which is provided by the Natinal Tax Service at the request of two lawmakers. We focus on the following policy effects: the number of exempted persons, tax revenue, changes in Gini between pre- and post-tax incomes, and tax burden concentration index. We find that, although details differ case by case, many of the desirable effects intended by the original government propsal have been distorted and/or mitigated through the revisions by the National Assembly. In particular, expansion of tax credits, during the revision process was a major factor that increases the exemption rate, reduces the tax revenue, and increases concentration of tax burden.