탄소중립에 따른 발전부문 에너지세제의 중장기 세수 전망과 시사점

Abstract

This study estimated the tax revenue of the power generation sector considering the 9th Basic Plan for Electricity Supply and Demand and the government's decarbonization policy. As a result, the stronger the greenhouse gas reduction efforts, the more clearly the tax revenue on bituminous coal decreases, which is mostly national tax (individual consumption tax). In the scenario with the strongest carbon reduction effort, the total tax revenue estimate for 15 years is decreased by about 5.5 trillion won as compared with the BAU scenario, which means that it is about 370 billion won in annual tax revenue. Also, we estimate greenhouse gas emissions for each scenario, and this result shows that the greenhouse gas reduction goal proposed by the government under the Framework Act on Carbon Neutrality will not be achieved. This implies that the government should implement intense policy efforts to achieve the goal, and in this case, tax revenue will be further reduced. Therefore, the government should prepare the fiscal management policy in consideration of the decrease in tax revenue caused by the carbon-neutral policy.