트럼프시대 동북아 정세와 한반도 문제
The Northeast Asia situation and Korean Peninsula Problems in Trump era
0
조회
0
다운로드
2
인용
0
참고문헌
키워드
초록
The common response to Trump's victory of presidency race is ‘increased uncertainty’. Trump's "America First" is a realistic nature centered on national interests rather than isolationism. The problem is that there will be many differences from the traditional international methods in concrete means. It reduces the United States's burden on the world order that the United States maintains and instead increases the cost of other countries. First, the foreign policy of Trump will be appear as a based on trade and foreign policy to the China by aggressive attitude. However, the Trump administration will continue to strengthen Japan's role in detering China, like the Obama administration. Second, ROK-US relations in the Trump era are likely to result in increased alliance costs and structural changes can be appear by political situation in ROK. The ROK-US alliance may be subject to negotiation and profit and loss calculations as the elements of the traditional military relationship weakened. However, how the domestic political situation in Korea will evolve can have a big impact on Trump's policy to the ROK. Third, North Korea-US relations in the Trump era can stand at the crossroads of confrontational crisis and big deal. If North Korea tries to withdraw the USFK through negotiations with the Trump Administration, and if the internal political situation in Korea is favorable to North Korea and the ROK-US alliance makes a plosive sound, the North Korean nuclear dismantlement and USFK withdrawal exchange card is also can be. Fourth, in the era of Trump, Korea should prepare for an increase in crisis management factors and opportunities for unification. We must clearly recognize that the United States should be involved in UN sanctions against North Korea while maintaining international cooperation. In particular, ROK actively say the issue of unification to the US along with North Korea problems.
Abstract
The common response to Trump's victory of presidency race is ‘increased uncertainty’. Trump's "America First" is a realistic nature centered on national interests rather than isolationism. The problem is that there will be many differences from the traditional international methods in concrete means. It reduces the United States's burden on the world order that the United States maintains and instead increases the cost of other countries. First, the foreign policy of Trump will be appear as a based on trade and foreign policy to the China by aggressive attitude. However, the Trump administration will continue to strengthen Japan's role in detering China, like the Obama administration. Second, ROK-US relations in the Trump era are likely to result in increased alliance costs and structural changes can be appear by political situation in ROK. The ROK-US alliance may be subject to negotiation and profit and loss calculations as the elements of the traditional military relationship weakened. However, how the domestic political situation in Korea will evolve can have a big impact on Trump's policy to the ROK. Third, North Korea-US relations in the Trump era can stand at the crossroads of confrontational crisis and big deal. If North Korea tries to withdraw the USFK through negotiations with the Trump Administration, and if the internal political situation in Korea is favorable to North Korea and the ROK-US alliance makes a plosive sound, the North Korean nuclear dismantlement and USFK withdrawal exchange card is also can be. Fourth, in the era of Trump, Korea should prepare for an increase in crisis management factors and opportunities for unification. We must clearly recognize that the United States should be involved in UN sanctions against North Korea while maintaining international cooperation. In particular, ROK actively say the issue of unification to the US along with North Korea problems.
참고문헌 (41)
- 미국의 전통적 외교안보 원리와 미국 세계전략의 변화, "강명세", 세종연구소, ~ (2011)
- 국회도서관, "트럼프 한눈에 보기" (2016), 국회도서관
- 권용림, "미국외교의 흐름과 전망-정치사적 이해를 위한 시론", 경성대학교 논문집, 19(2), pp.307~323 (1998)
- 김승재, "반색하는 중, 남에는 핵무장 허용?: 경제분야 미중관계 순탄치 않을 듯", 주간 동아, 통권 : 1063, pp.34~36 (2016)
- 김재천, "트럼프 현상과 2017년 미국의 외교정책", EAI 논평, ~ (2017)
- 김현욱, "미국 트럼프 당선, 어떤 미국인가 그리고 어떻게 대응할 것인가?", 평화재단 긴급좌담회 대담록, ~ (2016)
- 데니스 프로리그, "미국의 힘과 패권주의" (2005), 매봉
- 데이비드 호킨스, "수천만 유권자의 선택은 옳았다", 뉴스위크한국판, 통권 1250호, ~ (2016)
- 민주평 화통일자문회의, "동북아 정책변화와 한반도 통일", 한미평화포럼 (2016), 콜롬비아대학교
- 빌 파월, "대중의 분노 타고 백악관 입성", 뉴스위크 한국판, 통권 1249호, ~ (2016)
- 손병권, "'아메리카 퍼스트' 앞의 한미관계", EAI 논평, 1~4 (2016)
- 양평섭, "미국 신행정부의 대중국 통상정책과 한중경협에의 영향", 오늘의 세계경제, 16(34), pp.1~15 (2016)
- 유성진, "트럼프 열풍과 미국다원주의의 위기, 그리고 동아시아", 정세와 정책, pp.1~4 (2016)
- 유웅조, "트럼프당선자의 외교정책 기조와 한국의 대응방향", 이슈와 논점, (1223), pp.1~4 (2016)
- 이승열, "트럼프등장 이후 북미관계 변화와 한국의 대응전략", 이슈와 논점, (1225) (2016)
- 이장훈, "트럼프가 누설한 한미동맹의 이면", 신동아, 56(5), pp.398~405 (2016)
- 이지용, "트럼프행정부 출범 이후 미중관계 전망", IFANS FOCUS, ~ (2016)
- 이태환, "트럼프행정부와 미중관계", 세종논평, (326), pp.1~2 (2016)
- 정민정, "트럼프의 통상정책과 한미FTA의 향방", 이슈와 논점, (1229), pp.1~4 (2016)
- 트럼프행정부의 통상정책 전망과 미국이 활용 가능한 보호무역 수단, "KOTRA", Global Market, 1~33 (2016)
- 한국대외경제정책연구원, "오늘의 세계경제", ~ (2016)
- 현안과 과제-트럼프당선이 한국경제에 미치는 영향, "홍준표", 1~22 (2016)
- 황일도, "사드 배치 서두르는 펜타곤, 왜?", 주간동아, 통권1042호, 20~21 (2016)
- "<동아일보>(2016", 11, pp.2016, ~
- "<연합뉴스>(2016", 11, pp.2016, ~
- "<연합뉴스>(2016", 11, pp.2016, ~
- "<요미우리신문>(2016", 11, pp.2016, ~
- "<조선신보>(2016", 11, pp.2016, ~
- "<조선의 오늘>(2016", 05), 2016
- "<중앙일보>(2016", 11, pp.2016, ~
- Feliu Justine, "Trump, NATO and European defence spending", pp.1~3 (2016), Electronic Resource
- Putting America first could give China the edge: Donald Trump and the US-China relations, "Forsby Andreas Bøje", Danish Institute for International Studies, 1~4, pp.DIIS Policy Brief November 2016 (2016)
- "Trump gets down to business on 60 Minutes" (2016)[URL]
- South Korean Political Crisis Poses Challen ge for Trump Adminitsration, "Klingner Bruce", The Heritage Foundation, 1~3 (2016)
- "Newsmax" (2016)[URL]
- Noland Marcus, "Trump, Trade, and South Korea" (2016), Peters on Institute for International Economics
- Snyder G. H., "Alliance Politics" (1997), Cornell University Press
- "Stars Strips" (2016)[URL]
- "Washi ngton Examiner" (2016)[URL]
- "Washington Post" (2016)[URL]