Research on The Damage Scale Analysis of a Tactical Nuclear Attack by Wind Direction and Speed
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North Korea’s tactical nuclear attack poses the most dangerous threat to South Korean society. However, the Ministry of National Defense and the government do not predict or prepare adequately for which tacticalnuclear attack will occur or what damage scale it will cause if it happens. Additionally, there is a lack of analysis onhow wind direction and speed affect the extent of damage caused by a tactical nuclear attack in any given area. Thisresearch focused on the damage scale caused by a tactical nuclear attack on a nuclear power plant among nationalimportant facilities. Additionally, the average direction and speed of wind for 10 years in the nuclear power plantarea were analyzed to determine the extent of their impact. Among the various data sets of the Korea MeteorologicalAdministration, this research utilized wind direction and wind speed data collected from 2015 to 2025. The scopeof the research is limited to three nuclear power plants, namely Wolseong, Hanul, and Saeul, among the nationalimportant facilities, which are classified as “A” grade in South Korea. The research is also limited to plutonium 10 ktsizes for tactical nuclear attacks in North Korea. The simulation program is NUKEMAP by Alex Wellerstein.
Abstract
North Korea’s tactical nuclear attack poses the most dangerous threat to South Korean society. However, the Ministry of National Defense and the government do not predict or prepare adequately for which tacticalnuclear attack will occur or what damage scale it will cause if it happens. Additionally, there is a lack of analysis onhow wind direction and speed affect the extent of damage caused by a tactical nuclear attack in any given area. Thisresearch focused on the damage scale caused by a tactical nuclear attack on a nuclear power plant among nationalimportant facilities. Additionally, the average direction and speed of wind for 10 years in the nuclear power plantarea were analyzed to determine the extent of their impact. Among the various data sets of the Korea MeteorologicalAdministration, this research utilized wind direction and wind speed data collected from 2015 to 2025. The scopeof the research is limited to three nuclear power plants, namely Wolseong, Hanul, and Saeul, among the nationalimportant facilities, which are classified as “A” grade in South Korea. The research is also limited to plutonium 10 ktsizes for tactical nuclear attacks in North Korea. The simulation program is NUKEMAP by Alex Wellerstein.